Join discussions on moving to and living in the USVI, ask questions, share info & tips! (Vacationing? Visit Travel Message Board)


Saint Croixs economy

Mytcar34
March 16, 2012 12:15AM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 68

How are you folks making out with the closings of Hovensa? I know you guys will bounce back just like you always do. I have noticed a slight drop on long term rentals, any other inconveniences that have been noticeable?

Re: Saint Croixs economy

speee1dy
March 16, 2012 08:04AM

Registered: 6 years ago
Posts: 4,577

not yet, but it will soon happen. most gas stations do not know where they will get their fuel from. hope they find one soon. some talk of businesses closing.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

DaChief
March 16, 2012 09:11AM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 129

I don't think that we'll see many of the effects until 4/20. There are currently 217 Condo's for Sale on STX, there were about 197 on 01/20.
There are currently 349 houses for sale, there are currently 17 Condo Rentals.

I would guess that Consumer Spending is probably starting to become more conservative- but many of the mainline employees are receiving severance, separation, and some retention bonuses.

From what I know, some 1600-1700 employees (contractor and hovensa combined) will be separarted on 4/20. Additional employees will go on 7/20. Still more around 12/20. By 12/20, they will be down to the "the 100".

I think that the some of the effects will start to be felt around 6/20, when many of the housing benefits stop.

Employees, Contractor Employees have long shored up our long term rental market- I am afraid this will evaporate...I hope that something comes about to reverse this- that maybe I am incorrect...

I think that this Buyer's Market will get better for the Buyer between June and December. After that? Who knows

Re: Saint Croixs economy

DaChief
March 16, 2012 03:55PM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 129

Mind you, I take NO delight in any of this....One could easily assume that there will be a like "splatter" effect throughout our economy- that's why it's so VERY important to utilize as much on island support that we ca.

I also am cautious, though not apprehensive about the our economy. As a property owner who has been here for more than a decade, caution would dictate- knee jerk reactions or theory would be somewhat counterproductive. Wait, look, listen- I think that the Buyer's Market will prevail for probably about a year or more....

Interesting enough though, I have heard rumor from some of my island connections that the closure may not be longer than a year or so, but then again, informed sources tell me this is unrealistic. What to do? Alot of us have put our lives and souls into this community- and will not abandon her in her hour of need....

Re: Saint Croixs economy

JulieKay
March 17, 2012 09:07AM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 1,338

Casual talk with friends reveals a lot of people buying rental properties over the next 6 - 12 months, doing some flips and holds - understanding they may hold the property empty for a while, but the interest is there. Also friends from the states who have been frequent visitors and have wanted to buy here, but have held off due to price, now are considering "the buy." The Buyer's Market is starting to show to me...

Re: Saint Croixs economy

Iris Tramm
March 17, 2012 09:10AM

Registered: 4 years ago
Posts: 629

Friend predicts $7/gallon for gas with WAPA going to $1+/kwh. Thoughts? He's actually the most optimistic person I know here.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

JulieKay
March 17, 2012 09:20AM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 1,338

Quite possibly. For us that means about another $50/month for gas. We already consolidate trips for fuel-efficiency and consider fuel-efficient alternatives.

I've seen predicitions of $5 - $6 on the Continental US as well. The rising cost of gasoline is more than a USVI issue.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

DaChief
March 17, 2012 10:18AM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 129

Yes, I would agree that it will be a Buyer's Market for a while, probably with some resultant flattening of the market prices...

I do not think that an electrical rate of $1 is realistic. Right now it's .44 on the residential side- the LEAC is .37. There's roughly a 15% discount. To transship and store will probably be about $7 a barrel. So, $144 a barrel for fuel, plus $7 for tranport and storage- $151 a barrel- the LEAC will go up by 17% max- .43.. So about .51 a KWH.

But with WAPA's usual spins and total disregard for the islands financial solvency- I have predicted on two radio shows- .55 to .60....

Gasoline- let's see- this is an easy equation as long as the market keeps doing what it has been with cyclic up and downs- this is elative to uninterrupted commerce. I will say that the current futures price keeps going between $3.20 and $3.60 a gallon. Let's work it backward from the FOB point- we'll use the high end, so it present a worst case scenario... From US Gulf-PR-HOVENSA-RACK-RETAILER

Refinery- 3.60, plus shipping (5/bbl) = 3.71, Storage Cost (.05 a gallon per month- 30 days- based on 150,000 bbls) (2/bbl) = 3.75, shipping to STX- (5/bbl) = 3.86, storage on STX- (2/bbl) = 3.90, Tax @ .07 gal plus new tax .07= .14 = 4.04, (Rack- .05/gal) = 4.05, Transport to Gas Station- .11 gal= 4.16, GRT= (supply and end point- that two times) .17 plus .18= 4.51- typical profit mark up on STX- .35 to .40= $4.91 a gallon.....

If we ship direct to STX, and not stop in PR- then .15 less- to around 4.75 a gallon- this will occur within the first week of July-

Re: Saint Croixs economy

HappyFace
March 17, 2012 05:52PM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 146

I don't have all the answers but I did stay at a Holiday Inn express last night!

Re: Saint Croixs economy

blu4u
March 17, 2012 10:39PM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 855

Gasoline in southern California last Monday = $4.72 per gallon. $150 per barrel by Memorial Day. Betting on $10 per gallon by year end. Some really big stuff happening on global scale.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/17/2012 10:45PM by blu4u.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

DaChief
March 18, 2012 03:21AM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 129

Remember that the Gasoline Season for Summer starts in March, Contracts are 90 days forward, the prices as delivered now on contracts are actually for June...

Re: Saint Croixs economy

STXBob
March 18, 2012 08:40AM

Registered: 8 years ago
Posts: 1,808

Quote
blu4u
Gasoline in southern California last Monday = $4.72 per gallon. $150 per barrel by Memorial Day. Betting on $10 per gallon by year end. Some really big stuff happening on global scale.

blu4u, are you literally betting? If not, you can do so at intrade.com, where you can bet for or against this statement: "Average national price of gasoline to hit $4.50 per gallon or more before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012." You can also bet on similar statements for $5.00 or $5.50 per gallon. Right now, they're giving 50/50 odds on $4.50 a gallon by year's end.
[www.intrade.com]

Re: Saint Croixs economy

Mytcar34
March 18, 2012 11:00AM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 68

Just paid 4.67 here in Alaska and the tourist season doesnt start till may when price goes up.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

onthespot
March 18, 2012 11:41PM

Registered: 3 years ago
Posts: 380

If I look hard, I can find it today in So Cal for $4.29/gallon.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

vicanuck
March 19, 2012 07:48AM

Registered: 4 years ago
Posts: 817

Actually, the economy on STX has been very vibrant lately in my opinion. It seems that the island has begun to wake up from a 40 year slumber now that we dont have Hovensa to line our pockets anymore. The amount of commerce going seems to have increased a lot over the past few months.

Regarding the re-opening of the refinery...I believe it will re-open under a new but familiar brand once they flush out all the exisiting labor contracts and get the EPA to bend on the concent decree. All will be well again soon.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

Mytcar34
March 19, 2012 02:58PM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 68

I hope your correct on a reopening but i am in refining and most of the time when they shutdown they will not reopen.Loss of experience is hard to replace.Hovensa has had its share of problems.Your right we need to move on just in case. Still hopeing to relocate in the next ten months.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

ms411
March 19, 2012 03:37PM

Registered: 4 years ago
Posts: 1,096

vicanuck, I think the uptick is coming from the Danish charters. I can see an increase from last year for Jan, Feb, and Mar, but what happens when they leave?

Re: Saint Croixs economy

DaChief
March 19, 2012 07:44PM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 129

vicanuck-

As far as I can recall- there must be a specified amount of time between cancellation of the labor contracts and a new owner starting work. I believe that it will be some form of retooling to NG- whether LNG or CNG- CNG being the wave of the future for ease of infrastucture and conversion. I have thought this from day one- closing to cancel all of the labor contracts and the discounting of fuel to WAPA...BUT- some (very informed individuals) state that this is definitely not the case- as the remainder of the repairs to the plant are in the magnitude of 1 billion or so.

Actually- I think that the conversion to a storage facility is just to keep a positive cash flow until the place can be sold....

Re: Saint Croixs economy

terry
March 20, 2012 07:13AM

Registered: 9 years ago
Posts: 2,336

I don't think it will ever be sold. On the mainland if you sell a piece of property you must first remove any contamination before the EPA will allow a sale.
If they keep it this does not have to be done.
A friend who is has close ties says it will not reopen, at least in the form it once was. In fact the Chinese are looking to buy some of the equiptment such as the coker.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

Gaffrig
March 20, 2012 10:11AM

Registered: 3 years ago
Posts: 11

Coker is sold, FCC, sold,
St. Lucia Terminal is for sale( wall street journal yesterday).
Valero Aruba (shut down yesterday).

Re: Saint Croixs economy

vasecs
March 20, 2012 11:24AM

Registered: 4 years ago
Posts: 165

FCC?? please explain, thanks

Re: Saint Croixs economy

SkysTheLimit
March 20, 2012 12:35PM

Registered: 7 years ago
Posts: 1,472

FCC Fluid Catalytic Cracker? I think... It's a unit at the refinery. Not the Federal Communications Commission.

Re: Saint Croixs economy

OldTart
March 20, 2012 12:49PM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 2,682

There's an extensive article on page 3 of today's Daily News. If you don't buy a hard copy you can access it online later in the day at [www.virginislandsdailynews.com]

Re: Saint Croixs economy

vicanuck
March 22, 2012 08:08AM

Registered: 4 years ago
Posts: 817

Me thinks the old refinery will eventually end up being a Super Fund site in 10 or 20 years...big corporations always leave their messes behind for the government to clean up. Just look at what Alumina left behind.

Re: Saint Croixs economy
avatar

longislandAl
March 23, 2012 04:17PM

Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 5

Quote
JulieKay
Casual talk with friends reveals a lot of people buying rental properties over the next 6 - 12 months, doing some flips and holds - understanding they may hold the property empty for a while, but the interest is there. Also friends from the states who have been frequent visitors and have wanted to buy here, but have held off due to price, now are considering "the buy." The Buyer's Market is starting to show to me...

Several years ago I investigated buying one of the Mill Harbor condos and asked the broker why so many units were up for sale. She informed me about WAPA's proximity and how it occassionally fluoridated the sea with waste water leakage causing frequent beach closures. I am still routinely checking the condo listings and have turned my signts to Colony Cove as I prefer the grounds and unit layouts. Obviously with respect to WAPA's effluent spills Colony Cove and the other surrounding condos suffer the same circumstance as Mill Harbor (which would explain the number of units on the market).

In spite of the significant inventory, WAPA spills and Hovensa closing I have not seen any price reductions for any of these units during the last several years. I recognize that the prices for these units have been and still remain relatively low in comparison to some of the other condos on the island and understand the reasons for this disparity but I question the validity of it being a "Buyers Market" when prices have remained constant for months and years. Do you think price reductions are still forthcoming or are these sellers just not motivated enough?

Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.

Click here to login

Moving to the U.S. Virgin Islands?

Settlers Handbook
Only $17.95

The Settlers Handbook for the U.S. Virgin Islands is your guide to moving to St. Croix, St. Thomas, St. John and Water Island.

Whether you are dreaming about island living, received a job transfer, are a new resident, or plan to retire in the USVI later down the road - this book is worth reading!

Order Today

Advertise

Join VIMovingCenter.com Today!

Tell prospective and current residents about your business.

Learn More →

Sister Sites

VITraders

USVI Books & Souvenirs

VInow

USVI Vacation Guide

Living in de V.I.

USVI Relocation DVD

Proud Supporter

VI Olympic Team

For over 45 years, the Virgin Islands has celebrated the Olympic tradition by sending our athletes to compete.

Learn More →

Newsletter Signup

Sign up now for our FREE Virgin Islands Moving Center Newsletter and we will email you regular updates on what's happening in the Virgin Islands & on VImovingcenter.com. You can unsubscribe at any time. Simply fill in the form below.

CAPTCHA

×