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Hurricane Irma - 11am update

islandjoan
August 31, 2017 11:19AM

Registered: 10 years ago
Posts: 1,332

Now I am getting concerned about Irma!

Here is what Super Dave just posted on stormcarib.com after the 11am advisory came out.

He was a weatherman on STT and still lives there. He knows his weather!

Here is what he said:

Good morning,

Just a quick update.

TS Irma has undergone rapid intensification (RI) in the MDR and is now a mid Category 1 hurricane with winds approx. 85 mph and a noticeable eye. Approx location is 16.7N and 33.4W and has only slightly wobbled north from 16.4 so pretty much slightly just north of a due west track. Irma is still expected to take an unusual dip to the SW which, if she does and stays on a SW dip for a few days, will make a landfalling impact in the mid to northern Leeward Islands an almost certainty with a forecast intensity of a Cat 3 or 4.

There is little to slow down this intensification as waters are warmer closer to the islands, wind shear is low and so is the dry air/Saharan Dust levels. Computer models are not super accurate these many days out but when they cluster together, it's a fairly accurate position. Plus, if you have been through one of these like I have, you get a real uneasy feeling.

This is not meant to cry wolf. This is meant to inform and raise awareness. Hurricane Irma has the potential to be a devastating hurricane and all possibilities are still on the table as in the Caribbean, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico with the GOM and the east coast thrown in for good measure. Basically, everyone needs to be vigilant here.

Behind Irma is another very healthy wave which has just splashed off the African coast much lower around 10N. This also will need to be watched but wind shear will be problematic for this one. Still....

Dave

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

Pdmargie
August 31, 2017 11:59AM

Registered: 3 years ago
Posts: 285

I'm not even on island yet. However, this one is making me nervous. I'm not psychic but I have a bad feeling. Hope I'm wrong. Everyone prepare now, please.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

speee1dy
August 31, 2017 12:02PM

Registered: 9 years ago
Posts: 8,216

i just looked at weather underground, they do have it turning into a 4 about a day before it is near us.

we will prepare on sunday. shutters pull shut, so no issue. we already have water. we just need canned goods and cat food. just refilled the meds.

if we lose power, it shouldnt be out long due to the feeder we are on.

will wash the clothes, towels etc on weekend.

maybe i will bake cookies too?

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

Pdmargie
August 31, 2017 01:29PM

Registered: 3 years ago
Posts: 285

SPAM,....lots of SPAM. That's what I get when blizzard is forecast. Calorie dense. My coworkers laugh at me but have taken advantage of the SPAM in the past. Lol!

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

LiquidFluoride
August 31, 2017 01:33PM

Registered: 4 years ago
Posts: 1,923

she's turning north.. I'm calling it!



Everyone think "turn north" thoughts... haha

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

islandjoan
August 31, 2017 01:43PM

Registered: 10 years ago
Posts: 1,332

Damn dude I HOPE you are right!!!

Basically the EURO is putting it right over us, and the GFS is turning it north.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update
avatar

Exit Zero
August 31, 2017 02:06PM

Registered: 9 years ago
Posts: 2,209

No reason not to have preparations for any level of storm in place by now - service the generator if you have one - you should have everything ready and a 24 hr advance final plan that doesn't require much beyond closing the shutters.
Scurrying about just before a storm is imminent is not a good way to live here during storm season.
If you haven't been through Hugo or Marilyn here - listen closely to seasoned residents and plan accordingly - hurricane Parties are not the solution - if you don't believe in the structure you live in plan now to find a place to weather any storm.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

SkysTheLimit
August 31, 2017 02:12PM

Registered: 10 years ago
Posts: 1,815

Very concerned and about as prepared as we can get.
Please turn north Irma!!!!!!

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

speee1dy
August 31, 2017 02:14PM

Registered: 9 years ago
Posts: 8,216

but its not bad fried with potato and onion

Quote
Pdmargie
SPAM,....lots of SPAM. That's what I get when blizzard is forecast. Calorie dense. My coworkers laugh at me but have taken advantage of the SPAM in the past. Lol!

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

singlefin
August 31, 2017 04:32PM

Registered: 3 years ago
Posts: 513

I got the last 5k generator at Home Depot today. They had two 10k, one 7k and a few 4k and under units on the shelves left. I think I got the last 5 gallon gas container though.
Everything else is ready... I think.
I'm looking at that brand new satellite dish I had installed last week...IDK???

And the "check engine" light just lit up on my pickup today too.
Dang!

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

M&M
August 31, 2017 04:41PM

Registered: 1 year ago
Posts: 36

STX--- As of approx. 1pm today Kmart at Sunny Isle had about 3 portable Weatherband/AM/FM radios left. Cost is $30.00. Kmart West did not have them. This is our first hurricane season on island so trying to be as prepared as possible, while not panicking (not easy), and hoping that we are all safe. Please keep the advice coming!

BTW, animal shelter is requesting bottled water, canned dog food, and jumble cords if anyone is interested.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

janeinstx
August 31, 2017 06:14PM

Registered: 5 years ago
Posts: 611

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

East Ender
August 31, 2017 06:24PM

Registered: 12 years ago
Posts: 4,846

Make sure you have a full tank in your vehicle. Medications refilled. Food and water. Batteries for flashlights etc. Have a safe room- closet or bathroom with no windows, perhaps snuggled up to the cistern, for your last stand. Towels and mops. All important papers in zip locks. Keep your shoes near by (lots of debris after).

The weather science has improved greatly over the years. In Marilyn, we knew there was a storm out there, but really didn't know which way it was going. Now they can watch the steering winds, the troughs, etc. They are pretty accurate 3 days out, and are improving on the 5 day forecast. Right now, it is a prepare and wait game...

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

Spartygrad95
August 31, 2017 06:41PM

Registered: 3 years ago
Posts: 1,870


Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

Scubadoo
August 31, 2017 06:53PM

Registered: 3 years ago
Posts: 1,637

Spam, spam, spam, spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, any still left on the shelves?

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

Gumbo
August 31, 2017 08:05PM

Registered: 3 years ago
Posts: 456

Quote
Scubadoo
Spam, spam, spam, spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, any still left on the shelves?

There are all different flavors of Spam these days. I bought some jalapeno and some chorizo Spam today for the storm.
Spam is moving up in the world.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

singlefin
August 31, 2017 09:18PM

Registered: 3 years ago
Posts: 513

magicseaweed.com
Click on
Northern Caribbean.

Its a surfer site projecting wave conditions.
According to it, Irma will move north of us and its even showing wave conditions around St. Croix are rather subdued considering the intensity of the storm.

Its usually pretty accurate, although as many are saying, Irma is still pretty far out there.

Here we go..

Pammerjo
August 31, 2017 11:13PM

Registered: 1 year ago
Posts: 144

As chance would have it, I happen to be on-island for this one so got my prep done today. Many gallons of water, full propane for grill, full car, full larder. Hurricane shutters tested. Batteries, lanterns, flashlights, candles, two portable chargers (not that cell towers will have power...). There were three small stove-top percolators left at k-mart/tutu if coffee is your thing and you have a camp stove or a burner on your gas grill - couldn't find a French press.

A friend told me that if you're going to fill the bathtub, make sure to seal the drain with a little silicone and give it time to dry out before filling so you don't get a slow seep.

Good supplies of bottled water pretty much everywhere I hit today but don't wait on this. I imagine that things are gonna get hairy this weekend.

Get some cash and keep it in a safe place.

I've done a lot of hurricanes, but never in the tropics and never in water-front property. This should be interesting.

Be safe and be smart, everyone.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

Alana33
August 31, 2017 11:35PM

Registered: 5 years ago
Posts: 11,580

Good going.
Unfortunately, it could be more than interesting.
Keep your important documents dry, especially ID, banking and credit card information, hurricane insurance info, etc.
Take before and after photos of EVERYTHING, inside and out, before and after boarding up.
Bucket to get water out of tub.
Welcome to hurricane season in the VI.
Good Luck!

Good luck to us all, for that matter!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/31/2017 11:44PM by Alana33.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

AandA2VI
September 01, 2017 02:59AM

Registered: 5 years ago
Posts: 2,077

Yea I'm just going to point out today is Friday, the first of the month, a holiday weekend AND a possible cat 4 hurricane. The stores gan be mash up!!!! We got final things we needed today. Whew.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

Pammerjo
September 01, 2017 03:55AM

Registered: 1 year ago
Posts: 144

4 am and I made executive decision to get out of here on Tuesday. Was supposed to fly out on the 10th, but if it IS really bad, I fear the airport may be down for a while, and honestly, while the *idea* of riding out a hurricane sounds..."exciting"... and I know I'd be pretty safe where I am (Cowpet), I'm really not equipped to deal with the aftermath..no internet, cell, power, shower, uncertainty, and ramen noodles for days on end, the same reasons I don't do camping so well. Will give my provisions to my housekeeper and head back to Connecticut.

Those of you who are staying, be safe and take good care.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

ironheadUSVI
September 01, 2017 06:43AM

Registered: 4 months ago
Posts: 134

I am getting so pissed off at these news reporters and reports saying that Irma is no immediate threat to land.

What in the heck do they think an island is made out of?

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

islandjoan
September 01, 2017 07:02AM

Registered: 10 years ago
Posts: 1,332

The reporters never care that much about the islands.

It is gonna be a seriously close call. Read the tropical weather discussion from the NHC and the 120 hour coordinates put it just a bit east of STX at 17.7 north and a cat 4! Man I hope we don't get hit.

I am glad I got my stuff yesterday also!!! Food stamp day today so the shelves will be cleared! Cost u less was PACKED yesterday afternoon.

Stay safe everyone!

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

islandjoan
September 01, 2017 07:05AM

Registered: 10 years ago
Posts: 1,332

I had the 120 hour coordinates wrong - they are 17.5 north and 58 west at 140 mph cat 4. That is still too close for comfort. This is the NHC forecast.

Re: Hurricane Irma - 11am update

speee1dy
September 01, 2017 07:47AM

Registered: 9 years ago
Posts: 8,216

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