Hurricane Irma - 11am update
Now I am getting concerned about Irma!
Here is what Super Dave just posted on stormcarib.com after the 11am advisory came out.
He was a weatherman on STT and still lives there. He knows his weather!
Here is what he said:
Just a quick update.
TS Irma has undergone rapid intensification (RI) in the MDR and is now a mid Category 1 hurricane with winds approx. 85 mph and a noticeable eye. Approx location is 16.7N and 33.4W and has only slightly wobbled north from 16.4 so pretty much slightly just north of a due west track. Irma is still expected to take an unusual dip to the SW which, if she does and stays on a SW dip for a few days, will make a landfalling impact in the mid to northern Leeward Islands an almost certainty with a forecast intensity of a Cat 3 or 4.
There is little to slow down this intensification as waters are warmer closer to the islands, wind shear is low and so is the dry air/Saharan Dust levels. Computer models are not super accurate these many days out but when they cluster together, it's a fairly accurate position. Plus, if you have been through one of these like I have, you get a real uneasy feeling.
This is not meant to cry wolf. This is meant to inform and raise awareness. Hurricane Irma has the potential to be a devastating hurricane and all possibilities are still on the table as in the Caribbean, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico with the GOM and the east coast thrown in for good measure. Basically, everyone needs to be vigilant here.
Behind Irma is another very healthy wave which has just splashed off the African coast much lower around 10N. This also will need to be watched but wind shear will be problematic for this one. Still....
i just looked at weather underground, they do have it turning into a 4 about a day before it is near us.
we will prepare on sunday. shutters pull shut, so no issue. we already have water. we just need canned goods and cat food. just refilled the meds.
if we lose power, it shouldnt be out long due to the feeder we are on.
will wash the clothes, towels etc on weekend.
maybe i will bake cookies too?
she's turning north.. I'm calling it!
Everyone think "turn north" thoughts... haha
There was a [URL="http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/abinazir/2011/06/15/what-are-chances-you-would-be-born/"]1: 400,000,000,000,000[/URL] chance of you being born: what have you done with your miraculous life today?
No reason not to have preparations for any level of storm in place by now - service the generator if you have one - you should have everything ready and a 24 hr advance final plan that doesn't require much beyond closing the shutters.
Scurrying about just before a storm is imminent is not a good way to live here during storm season.
If you haven't been through Hugo or Marilyn here - listen closely to seasoned residents and plan accordingly - hurricane Parties are not the solution - if you don't believe in the structure you live in plan now to find a place to weather any storm.
I got the last 5k generator at Home Depot today. They had two 10k, one 7k and a few 4k and under units on the shelves left. I think I got the last 5 gallon gas container though.
Everything else is ready... I think.
I'm looking at that brand new satellite dish I had installed last week...IDK???
And the "check engine" light just lit up on my pickup today too.
STX--- As of approx. 1pm today Kmart at Sunny Isle had about 3 portable Weatherband/AM/FM radios left. Cost is $30.00. Kmart West did not have them. This is our first hurricane season on island so trying to be as prepared as possible, while not panicking (not easy), and hoping that we are all safe. Please keep the advice coming!
BTW, animal shelter is requesting bottled water, canned dog food, and jumble cords if anyone is interested.
Make sure you have a full tank in your vehicle. Medications refilled. Food and water. Batteries for flashlights etc. Have a safe room- closet or bathroom with no windows, perhaps snuggled up to the cistern, for your last stand. Towels and mops. All important papers in zip locks. Keep your shoes near by (lots of debris after).
The weather science has improved greatly over the years. In Marilyn, we knew there was a storm out there, but really didn't know which way it was going. Now they can watch the steering winds, the troughs, etc. They are pretty accurate 3 days out, and are improving on the 5 day forecast. Right now, it is a prepare and wait game...
Its a surfer site projecting wave conditions.
According to it, Irma will move north of us and its even showing wave conditions around St. Croix are rather subdued considering the intensity of the storm.
Its usually pretty accurate, although as many are saying, Irma is still pretty far out there.
As chance would have it, I happen to be on-island for this one so got my prep done today. Many gallons of water, full propane for grill, full car, full larder. Hurricane shutters tested. Batteries, lanterns, flashlights, candles, two portable chargers (not that cell towers will have power...). There were three small stove-top percolators left at k-mart/tutu if coffee is your thing and you have a camp stove or a burner on your gas grill - couldn't find a French press.
A friend told me that if you're going to fill the bathtub, make sure to seal the drain with a little silicone and give it time to dry out before filling so you don't get a slow seep.
Good supplies of bottled water pretty much everywhere I hit today but don't wait on this. I imagine that things are gonna get hairy this weekend.
Get some cash and keep it in a safe place.
I've done a lot of hurricanes, but never in the tropics and never in water-front property. This should be interesting.
Be safe and be smart, everyone.
Unfortunately, it could be more than interesting.
Keep your important documents dry, especially ID, banking and credit card information, hurricane insurance info, etc.
Take before and after photos of EVERYTHING, inside and out, before and after boarding up.
Bucket to get water out of tub.
Welcome to hurricane season in the VI.
Good luck to us all, for that matter!
Yea I'm just going to point out today is Friday, the first of the month, a holiday weekend AND a possible cat 4 hurricane. The stores gan be mash up!!!! We got final things we needed today. Whew.
*** The views and opinions expressed in my posts are soley those of A&A2VI and other like minded islanders. These views and opinions do not necessarily represent those of the majority or any/all contributors to this site. Have a GREAT DAY!
4 am and I made executive decision to get out of here on Tuesday. Was supposed to fly out on the 10th, but if it IS really bad, I fear the airport may be down for a while, and honestly, while the *idea* of riding out a hurricane sounds..."exciting"... and I know I'd be pretty safe where I am (Cowpet), I'm really not equipped to deal with the aftermath..no internet, cell, power, shower, uncertainty, and ramen noodles for days on end, the same reasons I don't do camping so well. Will give my provisions to my housekeeper and head back to Connecticut.
Those of you who are staying, be safe and take good care.
The reporters never care that much about the islands.
It is gonna be a seriously close call. Read the tropical weather discussion from the NHC and the 120 hour coordinates put it just a bit east of STX at 17.7 north and a cat 4! Man I hope we don't get hit.
I am glad I got my stuff yesterday also!!! Food stamp day today so the shelves will be cleared! Cost u less was PACKED yesterday afternoon.
Stay safe everyone!