Forecasters Keep Ey...
 

Forecasters Keep Eye on Low Pressure System Moving Toward Islands  

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Alana33
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Forecasters will have a better idea by Thursday as to what the low pressure area now making its way west across the Atlantic Ocean will do.

"It still has a very good potential to develop into a depression,” meteorologist Robert Mitchell at the National Weather Service in San Juan said Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center's 8 p.m. update indicated that the system could become a depression Tuesday night or sometime Wednesday. It put the probability of that happening within 48 hours at 70 percent.

It’s moving west or west-northwest at 15 mph.

Whether it will be a depression, a tropical wave or Tropical Storm Bertha when it nears the Virgin Islands late Saturday through Sunday is up in the air. Mitchell said if the low pressure area stays south it will pick up moisture from an area of moisture to the south called the Intertropical Convergence Zone. If it goes a bit north, it will encounter a lot of Sahara dust and dry air, which will inhibit development.

He said the majority of the models currently put it passing to the northeast of the islands.

“But one of the models we have confidence in indicates it will bring rain to the Virgin Islands,” Mitchell said.

He said the low pressure system was still about 1,800 miles from the Virgin Islands.

If it develops, the storm could put a monkey wrench in the Board of Election’s primary planned for Saturday. Caroline Fawks, who serves as supervisor for the Election System of the Virgin Islands, said it’s up to the board to make the decision on what to do because they have “emergency powers.” She referred questions to Alecia M. Wells, who chairs the joint board, but she could not be reached for comment.

However, Fawks said there is a precedent and election dates have been moved at the last minute because of bad weather.

“But we’re praying nothing happens,” she said.

V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency Director Elton Lewis is advising the public to closely monitor weather updates on this system and to assess their level of preparedness for storm impact.

“Preparedness begins with the individual. I encourage the public to take this opportunity to make sure all of your essentials items are in place, such as dried goods and water. The worst thing to do is to wait until the last minute to get ready,” he said in a press release issued Tuesday.

Updated weather information is available on local radio and TV along with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather radio.

More information about storms and hurricanes and how to prepare is online at www.VITEMA.gov/plan-prepare, www.Ready.gov or www.Listo.gov.

We need the rain but can do sure do without the wind.
Hopefully it will just gives us a good soaking which the islands really need!
Can't believe they named it Bertha. We already had one of those during a 4th July weekend many years ago.

61 Replies
vicanuck
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Bring it on...we need the rain!

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CruzanIron
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning.
Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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LiquidFluoride
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so... we will finally get rain?

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Alana33
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Hurricane Hunters fron STX exploring system now so 5PM update should answer some questions. On satellite, the system doesn't look robust as lots of dry air keeping it from strenghtening at this point but it's a ways away so always good this time of year to keep track and be prepared, in case one has to do more than close the windows.

Weather Channel thinking rainy weather more than anything IF this stays on track and doesn't become intensified. Only time will tell.
Fingers crossed for just rain. (Lots of rain!)

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CruzanIron
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200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently begun investigating the
low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands. Preliminary reports from the aircraft indicate
that this system is producing winds to near gale force. However,
satellite images indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms have diminished significantly since this morning
.
Therefore the low currently does not meet the criteria to designate
it as a tropical cyclone. Showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop later today or tonight, which could result in tropical
cyclone formation.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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