Hurricane Season 2014  

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CruzanIron
(@CruzanIron)
Trusted Member

Dr. Gray will be issuing his updated hurricane prediction today.
The hurricane season is scheduled to end November 30th.

Rumors are that his updated forecast will predict 5 named storms this season,
of which 4 will become hurricanes.

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Posted : October 7, 2014 7:09 pm
Bassman
(@Bassman)
Advanced Member

Dr. Grey retired a few years ago. The person(s) that replaced him can not hold a candle to Dr. Grey. I think the new person factors in a political agenda to his forecasts. He has been predicting above average hurricanes at the start of the season to accommodate the AGW crowd and then scales back during the season when there are only a few storms.
I've noticed that since Dr. Grey left, every storm is named, hurricane or not. In the past I only remember hurricanes being named.

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Posted : October 7, 2014 7:27 pm
CruzanIron
(@CruzanIron)
Trusted Member

Retired? Someone needs to tell him!

"The 2014 hurricane season is expected to have a below average number of named storms and hurricanes, according to Dr. Phillip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University (CSU)."

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-season-forecast-2014-colorado-state-university-20140409

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Posted : October 7, 2014 8:06 pm
East Ender
(@east-ender)
Expert

I've noticed that since Dr. Grey left, every storm is named, hurricane or not. In the past I only remember hurricanes being named.

Bassman: Memory is a funny thing. 😉 The naming has always occurred when the disturbance becomes a tropical storm. They have improved the ability to measure the power of a disturbance. Heck we now have "invests", which are not even tropical depressions. I believe we have more named storms because the ones that appear and disappear in the middle of the Atlantic, and are not experienced by anyone, are seen on satellite.

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Posted : October 7, 2014 8:07 pm
OldTart
(@OldTart)
Expert

Dr Gray is 84 but still reporting?

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Posted : October 7, 2014 8:47 pm
East Ender
(@east-ender)
Expert

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray

Professor Emeritus at CSU and still on the forecast staff,although has "stepped back" from primary authorship.

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Posted : October 7, 2014 9:09 pm
Alana33
(@Alana33)
Expert

We still have October and Novemeber to get thru so continue crossing fingers as last few years we seem to get more activity towards the end of Oct.

Storms get named when they get to the catagory of havingTropical Storm winds.
To me/my memory, Dr. Grey was more often wrong than right when it came to his predictions.

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Posted : October 7, 2014 9:44 pm
CruzanIron
(@CruzanIron)
Trusted Member

November never was hurricane season when I was younger.

I wonder if the Weather Channel added it?

JUNE - to soon

JULY - stand by

AUGUST - a must

SEPTEMBER - remember

OCTOBER - all over

That's the way I learned the season.

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Posted : October 7, 2014 10:29 pm
OldTart
(@OldTart)
Expert

Hurricane season "officially" over October but November is historically one of the two wettest months. Hurricane Thanksgiving Day has always been the third Monday in October. That darned Weather Channel.

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Posted : October 7, 2014 11:01 pm
Alana33
(@Alana33)
Expert

Was it hurricane Oscar that gave us the drenching and wind late October, a couple years ago? Lot's of rain, downed trees, mud and rockslides and lots of leaf litter but no damage to properties as I recall. Power out for about 4-5 days my location/stt.

While unusual, there was wrong way lenny one Nov. I remember one in December many years ago so while November marks the traditional end of hurricane season, they can occur later.

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Posted : October 8, 2014 1:33 am
islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
Trusted Member

Hurricane Omar hit St Croix overnight October 15, 2008.

Here is info from wunderground:

Omar intensifies to Category 3, but mostly spares the Lesser Antilles
By: JeffMasters, 2:39 PM GMT on October 16, 2008

Hurricane Omar blasted through the Lesser Antilles last night, intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane as it accelerated to the northeast. Fortunately, the eye missed all the islands, as the storm passed through the narrow Anedega Passage between the Virgin Islands and Anguilla. However, the western eyewall did pass over the eastern tip of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands (Figure 1), bringing hurricane-force winds there. A Personal Weather Station at the Buccaneer Resort on the northeast coast of St. Croix recorded sustained winds of 80 mph at a height of 110 feet. Rainfall there was 6.28" on Thursday, and 9.11" so far today, for a storm total of 15.39". Other wind measurements and total rainfall for the past two days from Omar:

St. Croix airport 39 mph, gusting to 58 mph, 4.56"
Limetree Bay, south side of St. Croix 51 mph, gusting to 71 mph
Limetree Bay CMAN station, St. Croix 53 mph
St. Maartin airport 45 mph, gusting to 67 mph, 7.02"
Anguilla West End Personal Weather Station 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph, 2.88" (elevation 45 feet)

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Posted : October 8, 2014 1:29 pm
sunshinefun
(@sunshinefun)
Trusted Member

My kids slept right through Omar.

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Posted : October 8, 2014 3:22 pm
speee1dy
(@speee1dy)
Expert

i slept through omar too. stanford security was around for that and it was awesome because they were everywhere making sure we were okay and no looting was going on downtown.

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Posted : October 8, 2014 7:48 pm
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