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aussie
(@aussie)
Trusted Member

...drop your guard. The long range hurricane tracking models have started to lock onto a system that may be headed in our general direction late next week.

The GFS model forecasts Colin will form east of the Lesser Antilles and then pass just north of the Virgin Islands next Thursday.

The Canadian model forecasts that Colin will develop this weekend but will be pulled northward well east of the Lesser Antilles later next week.

The European model forecasts that Colin will develop late this weekend and will be located in the eastern Caribbean just south of Puerto Rico around next Friday.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

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Topic starter Posted : July 28, 2010 2:18 pm
rhstoo
(@rhstoo)
Advanced Member

Thanks for the link. Sara and I are going to be on-island for a week starting on the 9th. Hope it isn't too blustery (or worse) the whole time we're there!

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Posted : July 28, 2010 2:32 pm
East Ender
(@east-ender)
Expert

Aussie: I have lived here long enough to know that you do not drop your guard from June 1st to November 30th. On the other hand, you should not be an alarmist. There is no Colin, there is not even an invest. When there is an invest, call me. 😉 While I have much admiration for the folks who make the computer models, I know that they are only accurate about 3 days out and only when the system is actually formed. And then for the direction not the intensity.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best. And keep your car filled up with gas.

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Posted : July 28, 2010 10:38 pm
aussie
(@aussie)
Trusted Member

Alarmist? Heh heh, not me East Ender. As I've stated before, I love storms! What you see from me is excitement - not fear.

Yup, weather forecasting is not even close to being an exact science. The hurricane models are flawed but they are they best we have. Actually, the models performed pretty well with Alex this year. They locked onto it long before it formed.

I was just giving folks that might be making plans for late next week an early heads up as to what the models are starting to lock in on. Folks that haven't lived here as long as you have, East Ender, might benefit from a nudge to get prepared.

Colin soon come!

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Topic starter Posted : July 28, 2010 11:00 pm
moving
(@moving)
Advanced Member

How does one generally prepare for a hurricane? In NY we prepare for weather with snow plows and salt.

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Posted : July 29, 2010 1:44 am
Exit Zero
(@exit-zero)
Trusted Member Registered

there are quite a few threads to search for hurricane preparedness.

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Posted : July 29, 2010 4:27 am
moving
(@moving)
Advanced Member

Thank you. I haven't tried searching, and realize that many of my questions were probably asked before!

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Posted : July 29, 2010 12:07 pm
aussie
(@aussie)
Trusted Member

When there is an invest, call me. 😉

Calling East Ender....

It looks like I have that Invest you ordered. How would you like it prepared? 😀

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Topic starter Posted : July 29, 2010 7:15 pm
East Ender
(@east-ender)
Expert

Okay, Aussie, I concede the invest. However, to answer moving's question at the same time...

In June, you start thinking about what you are going to need to be self-sufficient for a minimum of 3 days. You make sure you have a source for cooking, canned goods, water, batteries, lights, etc. Search those hurricane preparedness threads for lists of supplies. What you do not want to do is get stuck at the grocery store once the storm is upon you. You are just ready to take care of yourself. You check out your domicile to make sure it is ready.

Next, you keep an eye on the weather. Aussie likes Crown Weather, and I agree, although it is almost TMI if you haven't looked at charts before. Weather Underground Tropical Weather (has nothing to do with Bill Ayers ,as far as I know) has great information with a blog by Jeff Masters, storm specialist, to explain what is happening. I love my Hurricane app by Kitty Code ($3.99 well spent.)

You watch for areas with potential of developing into tropical systems. When it is an invest, you just watch, once they start with the tracking, you get an idea of how much last minute stuff you might need to do. The progression from tropical wave to depression to tropical storm to hurricane is pretty straight forward, but sometimes it develops very quickly (like ba-da-bing!) so it is more important to worry about where it might go and less about the strength. Heck, that horrendous rain we had was "only" a wave or a depression, but caused more damage than many bigger storms. If it gets to TS or hurricane strength, 36 hour and 24 hour warnings will be posted. You will hear them on the radio telling you to "rush to complete your preparations." Then you hunker down and wait.

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Posted : July 29, 2010 9:51 pm
moving
(@moving)
Advanced Member

East Ender: Thank you very much for your insightful answer. So, I gather that when weather is severe, some major concerns are power outages, transportation, purchase of necessities, etc. - meaning, you will be stuck at home and need to be able to sustain yourself for at least 3 days.

Living in upstate NY, our "severe weather" has more to do with being able to handle the winters - not considered dangerous by those of us up here, however, there are skills that must be acquired, especially when travelling by car. The words tornado, earthquake and hurricane seem to be on a level I have never had to deal with. Perhaps my general alarm has to do with the fact that the tornados, earthquakes and hurricanes that I am familiar with are the ones that make international, or at least national news. Are people living on the islands generally "freaked out" during hurricane season, or is it just another day in life that you learn to prepare for?

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Posted : July 29, 2010 10:44 pm
aussie
(@aussie)
Trusted Member

Great info, East Ender.

I usually provide links to Crown Weather simply because Rob Lightbown writes his tropical weather discussions in a very straight forward manner. It's a good site.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29

Yup, Jeff Masters' blog at Weather Underground is excellent! It's great for storm junkies and anyone that just wants to understand a little bit about why things happen, or don't happen, they way the do/don't. There are some knowledgeable people participating in the forums but, at times, it's just a comical train wreck.

http://www.wunderground.com/

I absolutely love the site that AllMashUp turned me on to - Eastern US WXForums. Lots of pro forecasters and meteorologists posting there.

easternuswx.com forums

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Topic starter Posted : July 29, 2010 11:02 pm
Jumbie
(@ohiojumbie-2)
Trusted Member

Aussie - Since you are a storm junkie I'd just as soon prefer you keep your comments to yourself. Everybody who lives here knows the deal during hurricane season and the last thing we need to see is somebody posting hyothetic theories on what might happen in the future. The web site you refer to "Crownweather", It's like you are Chicken Little and "the sky's is falling". I much prefer to deal with the potential of a storm once the NWS has posted an invest or tropical storm warning.

Jumbie -STX

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Posted : July 29, 2010 11:10 pm
aussie
(@aussie)
Trusted Member

It's like you are Chicken Little and "the sky's is falling".
Jumbie -STX

LMAO!!!!!!!!

Perhaps you should start here and then try your post again 😀

http://www.rhlschool.com/reading.htm

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Topic starter Posted : July 29, 2010 11:15 pm
East Ender
(@east-ender)
Expert

So, I gather that when weather is severe, some major concerns are power outages, transportation, purchase of necessities, etc. - meaning, you will be stuck at home and need to be able to sustain yourself for at least 3 days.... Are people living on the islands generally "freaked out" during hurricane season, or is it just another day in life that you learn to prepare for?

Power outages, transportation and necessities are every day problems! 😉 The problem with big storms is total lack of communication, isolation from civilization and martial law. Aussie said s/he loves storms, and that is an easy thing to do in the abstract. Watching satellite images, estimating time of arrival, wind direction based on storm movement are all intellectual exercises that have very little to do with hunkering in your bathroom and praying to see the morning. I believe this is probably Jumbie's point.

Do we freak out? Some people do. This is why you don't want to have to look for water or plywood at the last minute. Knowledge is power. The more you understand about storms, the better. But realize that anyone who has experienced a serious storm does not appreciate either flippant or alarmist attitudes.

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Posted : July 30, 2010 12:19 am
moving
(@moving)
Advanced Member

East Ender: I see your point. This is probably a topic I should read up on if I do, in fact, relocate. Quite honestly, I am a big baby when it comes to storms - I may not be able to stomach that. The other possibility is that I prepare and learn from experience, perhaps lessening the nerves...

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Posted : July 30, 2010 12:51 am
roadrunner
(@roadrunner)
Trusted Member

Knowledge is power. The more you understand about storms, the better. But realize that anyone who has experienced a serious storm does not appreciate either flippant or alarmist attitudes.

Thanks, East Ender; you hit the nail on the head.

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Posted : July 30, 2010 1:09 am
aussie
(@aussie)
Trusted Member

moving,

Read some of ExitZero's posts. You'll quickly understand the total destruction these big ol' spinning puppies can bring and the emotional damage that some of the survivors will forever carry.

East Ender,

There was nothing "flippant or alarmist" in my initial post. I follow multiple tropical storm sites daily. When I was reasonably confident that an invest was imminent, I simply gave people a head's up as to what the models were projecting. The NHC designated invest 90L 28 hours after my post.

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Topic starter Posted : July 30, 2010 1:27 am
East Ender
(@east-ender)
Expert

aussie: When you said "I love storms!", some may have considered that a bit flippant. As I said, storms are interesting in the abstract, but not so much up close and personal. Have you lived through a major storm? Hugo, Marilyn?

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Posted : July 30, 2010 1:41 am
aussie
(@aussie)
Trusted Member

I understand your point, East Ender. My statement, "I love storms", wasn't in the slightest bit flippant. It was a statement that expressed where my interests and my passion lie. Written words can so easily be misinterpreted.

My passion for storms goes well beyond the abstract. I love being in them. The raw power of Mother Nature feeds me. I've been in 2 tornadoes. I've been outside in more super cell thunderstorms than I can count - many of them while floating in an aluminum john boat on the river...LOL...not smart, but fish feed like crazy on a falling barometer. I can tell you from experience that hail stones almost as big as golf balls will put knots on your head...LOL When really nasty storms are approaching, I go outside.

Omar hit the west end of St Croix with Cat 1 winds. It was exhilarating! I was outside twice during the storm. 2 weeks without power took a lot of the fun out of it though.

Hugo? Marilyn? No, I've never been in a big hurricane and I hope that I never experience a Cat 4 or Cat 5 storm. The science junkie in me just can't get enough of the coverage of those monsters but I have no desire to be in one. The human tragedy is just too great. I've read many accounts of Hugo and Marilyn. Many, many people on STT and STX have told me their stories of surviving Hugo and Marilyn. When you look into their eyes as they relate what they experienced, you see their pain and you see their fear - you feel their pain and their fear. It's heart-wrentching and I never trivialize that.

We live in the shooting gallery. I accept it. I can talk about it without fear. Not everyone can.

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Topic starter Posted : July 30, 2010 2:20 am
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