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Forecasters Keep Eye on Low Pressure System Moving Toward Islands

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Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Forecasters will have a better idea by Thursday as to what the low pressure area now making its way west across the Atlantic Ocean will do.

"It still has a very good potential to develop into a depression,” meteorologist Robert Mitchell at the National Weather Service in San Juan said Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center's 8 p.m. update indicated that the system could become a depression Tuesday night or sometime Wednesday. It put the probability of that happening within 48 hours at 70 percent.

It’s moving west or west-northwest at 15 mph.

Whether it will be a depression, a tropical wave or Tropical Storm Bertha when it nears the Virgin Islands late Saturday through Sunday is up in the air. Mitchell said if the low pressure area stays south it will pick up moisture from an area of moisture to the south called the Intertropical Convergence Zone. If it goes a bit north, it will encounter a lot of Sahara dust and dry air, which will inhibit development.

He said the majority of the models currently put it passing to the northeast of the islands.

“But one of the models we have confidence in indicates it will bring rain to the Virgin Islands,” Mitchell said.

He said the low pressure system was still about 1,800 miles from the Virgin Islands.

If it develops, the storm could put a monkey wrench in the Board of Election’s primary planned for Saturday. Caroline Fawks, who serves as supervisor for the Election System of the Virgin Islands, said it’s up to the board to make the decision on what to do because they have “emergency powers.” She referred questions to Alecia M. Wells, who chairs the joint board, but she could not be reached for comment.

However, Fawks said there is a precedent and election dates have been moved at the last minute because of bad weather.

“But we’re praying nothing happens,” she said.

V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency Director Elton Lewis is advising the public to closely monitor weather updates on this system and to assess their level of preparedness for storm impact.

“Preparedness begins with the individual. I encourage the public to take this opportunity to make sure all of your essentials items are in place, such as dried goods and water. The worst thing to do is to wait until the last minute to get ready,” he said in a press release issued Tuesday.

Updated weather information is available on local radio and TV along with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather radio.

More information about storms and hurricanes and how to prepare is online at www.VITEMA.gov/plan-prepare, www.Ready.gov or www.Listo.gov.

We need the rain but can do sure do without the wind.
Hopefully it will just gives us a good soaking which the islands really need!
Can't believe they named it Bertha. We already had one of those during a 4th July weekend many years ago.

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Topic starter Posted : July 30, 2014 2:09 pm
speee1dy
(@speee1dy)
Expert

well, we need some rain

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Posted : July 30, 2014 2:44 pm
OldTart
(@the-oldtart)
Expert

Now 'tis the season for visitors and (particularly new) residents to start getting anxious as every storm system rolls off the African coast. A day of rain would be lovely, I agree, so hopefully it'll pass close enough by (if it doesn't just fizzle out as so many do) so that we get some. Just give me a nudge if for some reason I miss a real alert or a warning!

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Posted : July 30, 2014 4:28 pm
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Ditto! I am in a wait and see mode, myself.
So if anyone has updates, please let us know!

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Topic starter Posted : July 30, 2014 6:55 pm
islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
Trusted Member

Jeff Masters gives it "a 10% chance that 93L will be a hurricane on Saturday when it makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles Islands"

Jeff Masters blog wunderground

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Posted : July 30, 2014 7:02 pm
islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
Trusted Member

Also from the same blog:

The Hurricane Hunters to study 93L
Originally, a fleet of five hurricane hunter aircraft were headed to the Caribbean today to intercept 93L, according to the NOAA/HRD blog and the NHC recon Plan of the Day. Two Air Force C-130s are still headed to the islands, and will begin flying alternating missions into 93L on Thursday afternoon. The three NOAA aircraft that were scheduled to deploy today have now had their missions cancelled.

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Posted : July 30, 2014 7:04 pm
CruzanIron
(@cruzaniron)
Expert

The chance of it developing into a system (depression/storm) dropped from 70% to 50% between 8AM and 2 PM today.

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Posted : July 30, 2014 7:16 pm
CruzanIron
(@cruzaniron)
Expert

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
been gradually decreasing since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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Posted : July 30, 2014 7:18 pm
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Hopefully just rain. If it does develop, it is very bad timing for me right now as I wrenched my shoulder which is in lots of pain and am basically one armed, to try to drag everything off my decks and put away. And.......... there's lots of "stuff" to put away so not in any hurry for a TS or hurricane.!"

Thanks for updates. Fingers crossed.

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Topic starter Posted : July 30, 2014 8:03 pm
CruzanIron
(@cruzaniron)
Expert

Hopefully just rain. If it does develop, it is very bad timing for me right now as I wrenched my shoulder which is in lots of pain and am basically one armed,

You must have been swinging that hammer hard fixing your computer.... 🙁

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Posted : July 30, 2014 8:20 pm
vicanuck
(@vicanuck)
Expert

Bring it on...we need the rain!

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Posted : July 31, 2014 11:57 am
CruzanIron
(@cruzaniron)
Expert

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning.
Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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Posted : July 31, 2014 12:23 pm
LiquidFluoride
(@LiquidFluoride)
Trusted Member

so... we will finally get rain?

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Posted : July 31, 2014 5:47 pm
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Hurricane Hunters fron STX exploring system now so 5PM update should answer some questions. On satellite, the system doesn't look robust as lots of dry air keeping it from strenghtening at this point but it's a ways away so always good this time of year to keep track and be prepared, in case one has to do more than close the windows.

Weather Channel thinking rainy weather more than anything IF this stays on track and doesn't become intensified. Only time will tell.
Fingers crossed for just rain. (Lots of rain!)

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Topic starter Posted : July 31, 2014 6:20 pm
CruzanIron
(@cruzaniron)
Expert

200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently begun investigating the
low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands. Preliminary reports from the aircraft indicate
that this system is producing winds to near gale force. However,
satellite images indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms have diminished significantly since this morning
.
Therefore the low currently does not meet the criteria to designate
it as a tropical cyclone. Showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop later today or tonight, which could result in tropical
cyclone formation.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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Posted : July 31, 2014 6:52 pm
janeinstx
(@janeinstx)
Trusted Member

Most recent update http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

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Posted : July 31, 2014 8:54 pm
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Issued By: VITEMA
Affected Jurisdictions: St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas, Water Island Counties

Headline: US Virgin Islands Under Tropical Storm Watch; VITEMA Urging Public to Begin Storm Preparations

Tropical Storm Bertha has formed about 720 miles east-southeast of St. Croix. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours somewhere within the specified areas.

At 11 p.m. the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near latitude 12.3 degrees north and longitude 55.5 degrees west. Storm motion was west-northwest at 20 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 miles per hour with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. According to the National Weather Service at San Juan, rains associated with Tropical Storm Bertha are expected to impact the US Virgin Islands beginning late Friday night and will continue through Saturday evening. Bertha is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with higher amounts up to 5 inches in some areas.

VITEMA urges the general public to begin preparations of their homes and businesses as soon as it is possible. Stay tuned to radio and TV for updated storm-related information and for instructions from local government officials.

At noon on Friday, VITEMA will initiate partial activation of its Emergency Operations Centers in preparation for Tropical Storm Bertha. More information will be provided as
it becomes available.

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Topic starter Posted : August 1, 2014 9:58 am
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Good news for us!

The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm warning for the territory due to anticipated passage of Tropical Storm Bertha’s center 67 miles to the south-southwest of St. Croix around noon Saturday. Tropical storm force winds currently extend outwards 45 miles, which means the territory should be spared the brunt of the storm’s winds.

Meteorologist Luis Rosa at the National Weather Service in San Juan said at 5:30 a.m. Friday that most of the rain associated with Bertha is on the north and northeast side of the storm’s circulation center. He said Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of one to three inches across the territory.

He said the rainfall is good news for the territory.

Read the rest here: http://stthomassource.com/content/news/local-news/2014/08/01/tropical-storm-warning-issued-vi

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Topic starter Posted : August 1, 2014 1:40 pm
FLLisa
(@fllisa)
Advanced Member

Good news for sure. Here's hoping for lots of rain to fill your cisterns and not much wind!

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Posted : August 1, 2014 3:24 pm
islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
Trusted Member

Correction to Alana's post:

Tropical storm force winds now extend 115 miles mainly to the NE of the center:

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF BARBADOS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
ON SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...
85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

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Posted : August 1, 2014 3:33 pm
speee1dy
(@speee1dy)
Expert

so glad we are getting rain

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Posted : August 1, 2014 5:35 pm
janeinstx
(@janeinstx)
Trusted Member

so glad we are getting rain

If it stays on track you are going to be getting more than just rain

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Posted : August 1, 2014 5:36 pm
islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
Trusted Member

Jane, that's what I'm starting to think, too! It's tracking more north than originally forecast. Things might get a bit more interesting on STX!

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Posted : August 1, 2014 5:39 pm
OldTart
(@the-oldtart)
Expert

so glad we are getting rain

If it stays on track you are going to be getting more than just rain

Like what? Some wind gusts? So I won't take out my umbrella ...

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Posted : August 1, 2014 5:40 pm
janeinstx
(@janeinstx)
Trusted Member

Message Removed

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Posted : August 1, 2014 5:48 pm
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