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Hurricane Irma - 11am update  

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islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
Noble Member

Now I am getting concerned about Irma!

Here is what Super Dave just posted on stormcarib.com after the 11am advisory came out.

He was a weatherman on STT and still lives there. He knows his weather!

Here is what he said:

Good morning,

Just a quick update.

TS Irma has undergone rapid intensification (RI) in the MDR and is now a mid Category 1 hurricane with winds approx. 85 mph and a noticeable eye. Approx location is 16.7N and 33.4W and has only slightly wobbled north from 16.4 so pretty much slightly just north of a due west track. Irma is still expected to take an unusual dip to the SW which, if she does and stays on a SW dip for a few days, will make a landfalling impact in the mid to northern Leeward Islands an almost certainty with a forecast intensity of a Cat 3 or 4.

There is little to slow down this intensification as waters are warmer closer to the islands, wind shear is low and so is the dry air/Saharan Dust levels. Computer models are not super accurate these many days out but when they cluster together, it's a fairly accurate position. Plus, if you have been through one of these like I have, you get a real uneasy feeling.

This is not meant to cry wolf. This is meant to inform and raise awareness. Hurricane Irma has the potential to be a devastating hurricane and all possibilities are still on the table as in the Caribbean, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico with the GOM and the east coast thrown in for good measure. Basically, everyone needs to be vigilant here.

Behind Irma is another very healthy wave which has just splashed off the African coast much lower around 10N. This also will need to be watched but wind shear will be problematic for this one. Still....

Dave

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Posted : August 31, 2017 2:19 pm
Pdmargie
(@Pdmargie)
Reputable Member

I'm not even on island yet. However, this one is making me nervous. I'm not psychic but I have a bad feeling. Hope I'm wrong. Everyone prepare now, please.

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Posted : August 31, 2017 2:59 pm
speee1dy
(@speee1dy)
Islander

i just looked at weather underground, they do have it turning into a 4 about a day before it is near us.

we will prepare on sunday. shutters pull shut, so no issue. we already have water. we just need canned goods and cat food. just refilled the meds.

if we lose power, it shouldnt be out long due to the feeder we are on.

will wash the clothes, towels etc on weekend.

maybe i will bake cookies too?

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Posted : August 31, 2017 3:02 pm
Pdmargie
(@Pdmargie)
Reputable Member

SPAM,....lots of SPAM. That's what I get when blizzard is forecast. Calorie dense. My coworkers laugh at me but have taken advantage of the SPAM in the past. Lol!

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Posted : August 31, 2017 4:29 pm
LiquidFluoride
(@LiquidFluoride)
Noble Member

she's turning north.. I'm calling it!

Everyone think "turn north" thoughts... haha

There was a [URL="http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/abinazir/2011/06/15/what-are-chances-you-would-be-born/"]1: 400,000,000,000,000[/URL] chance of you being born: what have you done with your miraculous life today?

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Posted : August 31, 2017 4:33 pm
islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
Noble Member

Damn dude I HOPE you are right!!!

Basically the EURO is putting it right over us, and the GFS is turning it north.

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Posted : August 31, 2017 4:43 pm
Exit Zero
(@exit-zero)
Noble Member

No reason not to have preparations for any level of storm in place by now - service the generator if you have one - you should have everything ready and a 24 hr advance final plan that doesn't require much beyond closing the shutters.
Scurrying about just before a storm is imminent is not a good way to live here during storm season.
If you haven't been through Hugo or Marilyn here - listen closely to seasoned residents and plan accordingly - hurricane Parties are not the solution - if you don't believe in the structure you live in plan now to find a place to weather any storm.

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Posted : August 31, 2017 5:06 pm
SkysTheLimit
(@SkysTheLimit)
Noble Member

Very concerned and about as prepared as we can get.
Please turn north Irma!!!!!!

Alan
St. Croix resident since 2000

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Posted : August 31, 2017 5:12 pm
speee1dy
(@speee1dy)
Islander

but its not bad fried with potato and onion

SPAM,....lots of SPAM. That's what I get when blizzard is forecast. Calorie dense. My coworkers laugh at me but have taken advantage of the SPAM in the past. Lol!

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Posted : August 31, 2017 5:14 pm
singlefin
(@singlefin)
Prominent Member

I got the last 5k generator at Home Depot today. They had two 10k, one 7k and a few 4k and under units on the shelves left. I think I got the last 5 gallon gas container though.
Everything else is ready... I think.
I'm looking at that brand new satellite dish I had installed last week...IDK???

And the "check engine" light just lit up on my pickup today too.
Dang!

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Posted : August 31, 2017 7:32 pm
M&M
 M&M
(@M&M)
Eminent Member

STX--- As of approx. 1pm today Kmart at Sunny Isle had about 3 portable Weatherband/AM/FM radios left. Cost is $30.00. Kmart West did not have them. This is our first hurricane season on island so trying to be as prepared as possible, while not panicking (not easy), and hoping that we are all safe. Please keep the advice coming!

BTW, animal shelter is requesting bottled water, canned dog food, and jumble cords if anyone is interested.

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Posted : August 31, 2017 7:41 pm
janeinstx
(@janeinstx)
Island Expert

Cat 3

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Posted : August 31, 2017 9:14 pm
East Ender
(@East_Ender)
Islander

Make sure you have a full tank in your vehicle. Medications refilled. Food and water. Batteries for flashlights etc. Have a safe room- closet or bathroom with no windows, perhaps snuggled up to the cistern, for your last stand. Towels and mops. All important papers in zip locks. Keep your shoes near by (lots of debris after).

The weather science has improved greatly over the years. In Marilyn, we knew there was a storm out there, but really didn't know which way it was going. Now they can watch the steering winds, the troughs, etc. They are pretty accurate 3 days out, and are improving on the 5 day forecast. Right now, it is a prepare and wait game...

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Posted : August 31, 2017 9:24 pm
Spartygrad95
(@Spartygrad95)
Noble Member

?91852102

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Posted : August 31, 2017 9:41 pm
Scubadoo
(@Scubadoo)
Noble Member

Spam, spam, spam, spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, any still left on the shelves?

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Posted : August 31, 2017 9:53 pm
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