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Hey everyone,
A heads up from Super Dave, as posted on http:www.stormcarib.com
This one might bear watching....
Good morning!
The NHC has finally and officially designated 91I as Tropical Depression
#8 after it finally decided to get it's act together overnight and into
this morning. As I said in my previous post, I didn't like it then and I
don't like it now. And, I believe, the East Coast of the U.S. down the
road 10 days or so, will not like it either.
The initial forecast calls for it to be around 17N 57W in 5 days which
brings it uncomfortable close to the Northern Antilles as a strong
tropical storm. The reason for it not to be "Cat 1 or 2 hurricane
Humberto" and just strong tropical storm Humberto is wind shear. While the
shear is expected to weaken considerably over the next several days
allowing it to strengthen, it is supposed to go back up to around the 15
knot range by the fourth day thereby slowing down the intensification
process. Key phrase here is " supposed to"! Intensification hasn't been
very reliable these last few storms and with very warm jet-fuel waters,
the Northern Islands could very well see a Cat 2 on the doorstep. Just a
possibility I'm throwing out; not cut into stone.
After it passes the islands and if it does indeed pass north, the US east
Coast could be in for a major surprise as well as the Bahama's and
Turks&Caicos. Pay attention boys and girls. It's showtime again in the
tropics!
I'll post a further update either tonight after the station or tomorrow
O'Dark Thirty.
Dave
Posted : September 12, 2007 4:51 pm
the Hurricane Hunters are arriving on STX on Friday and the NOAA planes may join them from where they are currently flying in Barbados. Remember that as long as the planes are flying out of STX that it means the HH don't think the storm will come closer than 200 miles to STX. If they bug out before the storm goes by (if it hasn't died into nothing), it may be heading our way.
Posted : September 12, 2007 6:20 pm