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Jules
(@Jules)
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July 20, 2008 9:42 am  

I'm starting this thread under the title "weather watch" as a place to post observations, speculation , and information about tropical disturbances and potential hurricanes. When Bertha was forming someone posted early observations and concerns and many people on the board poo-pooed the post because it was too early to be concerned.

So, if you were one of those people, you can skip this thread 🙂

For the past several days there has been a big disturbance sitting over southwestern Africa. Now it's *massive*, shows rotation (already!!) and it hasn't even moved off the coast yet. I usually don't pay too much attention until the systems are well into the Atlantic and being tracked, but I think this one bears early watching.. It will probably become a named system later today. A good image can be seen at http://www.stormcarib.com/goes.htm

That site and weather underground ( http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ ) give excellent information about tropical weather, if you are interested.

Hmmm. Perhaps I should take this opportunity to check my hurricane supplies/plan.


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Ronnie
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July 20, 2008 11:24 am  

I was one of those people. Kind of hard to skip the thread. Enjoy your weather watch.


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Peggy
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July 20, 2008 1:49 pm  

(tu) Great idea Jules!! Are you going to post on the vacation board? 🙂


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EngRMP
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July 20, 2008 2:05 pm  

Jules,
This will be great education for us newbies (or wannabes in my case).... I'll be watching...


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East Ender
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July 20, 2008 2:30 pm  

From June through November we should all be watchful, which is a bit different from being alarmist. Our gas tanks should never be below half. We should have our food and water supllies ready. We should have a plan for secruring any property (home, business, boat) and be ready to do so. We should not panic nor cause others to panic. (tu)


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trw
 trw
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July 20, 2008 3:00 pm  

and cash,you'll need cash


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Jules
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July 20, 2008 3:25 pm  

Yeah, I've been very complacent about hurricanes for the last two years. I always *meant to* get a kit together but I never seem to get around to it. I really should get some basic supplies together.

I didn't start this thread to raise an alarm-- the sky is not falling-- just wanted to point out something interesting and start a thread where weather-watchers could chat. As in my original post, it is WAY to early to tell what, if anything, this particular disturbance will do.


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Cory
 Cory
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July 21, 2008 3:40 am  

My fav site for hostile weather: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

1. A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.


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trw
 trw
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July 21, 2008 3:58 am  

when i moved here for real i said there would never be a major storm infilicted on this island while i lived here,so far that has held to be true and so i say it again as long as i live here and call STX home we will never have a major damaging storm,now you may say i'm crazy and stupid but this is one thing i really believe,lol no i've not read too much harry potter it's just something i feel inside me


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pt
 pt
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July 21, 2008 12:17 pm  

Hi, Jules,

Here's another one for people to try: Central Florida Hurricane Center - http://flhurricane.com. Lots of maps, related links and plots of possible paths.

PT


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mrj1182
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July 21, 2008 12:44 pm  

that's a good one, or you can go to www.weather.com they have everything weather you could imagine


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EngRMP
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July 21, 2008 1:07 pm  

The amount of info available from these sites (wunderground, nhc, flhurricane, etc) is just incredible! It makes it possible for us mere mortals to actually understand the weather much better.

trw, OK, if that's not a jinx, I don't know what is! Start boarding up your windows, folks...


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terry
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July 21, 2008 2:20 pm  

Please don't leave or go on vacation during the season.:D


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Lizard
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July 21, 2008 2:26 pm  

I'LL second that!


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Jules
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July 21, 2008 3:05 pm  

Whoohoo, it's raining! Maybe my plants will revive.


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michael
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July 21, 2008 5:16 pm  

he said some thing about moving to STT last week.


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Peggy
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July 25, 2008 10:04 am  

bump!


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sugarlander
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August 11, 2008 2:55 pm  

Since most of the storms have tracked NW and conditions are favorable for development, it looks like there are a couple of systems in the Atlantic that could pose a threat to the islands later this week. See the link below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

So I've got a question for long time residents. Once it's reasonably certain that a tropical storm is eminent, would it then be too late to secure supplies e.g. water, ice, batteries, etc? Would the store shelves be empty? I've got some supplies but am wondering if it's time to load up...


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michael
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August 11, 2008 3:09 pm  

hi from south west florida. just hope the weather is good from 8-25-08 through 9-02-08, thats when my pickup will be on the ship headed for STX. living in florida for the last 30 years i never got ice before a storm. see you all soon, 8-30-08


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Exit Zero
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August 11, 2008 3:25 pm  

Sugarlander -- It is best to have a good supply of the basics well ahead of any imminent storm system -- the crowded stores and long lines will soon empty the shelves and your time is better spent at your home preparing the exterior.
Ice -- try to pack the freezer with water bottles so you have ice frozen ahead of time and it can extend your cooling when the current is turned off. Keep your car and any emergency gasoline/diesel containers full at this time of year.


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Juanita
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August 11, 2008 3:44 pm  

sugarlander,
You can probably still find supplies, but don't wait until the last minute. I posted about this last year when we had a threat. It was "reasonably certain" we would get hit, at least by tropical storm weather, if not hurricane. I don't remember the name of the storm.

the forecast was to get hit on Thursday (I think, maybe Friday), and on Tuesday or Wednesday I felt like I was about the only person who seemed to be taking it seriously. There wasn't any extra activity in the stores, and the shelves were fully stocked (as much as they ever are). The only place that seemed to even know about it was Cost-U-Less. They had a table out with flashlights, batteries, candles, etc. They also had moderate lines of people with water and the usual supply stuff.

I was amazed also that a lady working in my doctor's office just shrugged it off and chuckled at me. I was taking a Spanish class at the time , and a couple of people in the class didn't even know about it. Last year was our first year on St. Croix. We were on St. Thomas for years, but we lived in Red Hook, in the boating community. Everyone there takes threats seriously. They sure don't seem to on STX.

As it turned out, the storm was very minor. We got some wind and rain, but nothing too harsh. I guess they knew more than I, but I will still prepare, as best I can.


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sugarlander
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August 11, 2008 3:54 pm  

Thank you Juanita and Exit Zero. Both of you have also contributed to an very informative thread about preparedness in the past:

https://www.vimovingcenter.com/talk/read.php?4,87219,87269#msg-87269

So I reviewed the messages again and will be taking care of a few gaps in my hurricane plan this afternoon.


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Cheeseheads
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August 11, 2008 8:08 pm  

Hmmm.......

Flying down on Thursday..........

Perhaps not?

:S


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heepajeep
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August 11, 2008 8:33 pm  

My favorite weather source:
http://www.crownweather.com/

Just don't freakout about a hurricane or tropical weather warning. Other than ice, you should have all other food, water and personal items (TP) on-hand for a period of time year round.
Canned goods, dehydrated foods, super pasturized foods in a box, heater meals, etc. should already be on hand. You might want to check the "good until" codes and cycle out the older ones tho.


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heepajeep
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August 11, 2008 8:40 pm  

Posted 5am Aug. 11th 2008:
Two systems are being forecast to develop by all of the major global models and all of the models are pointing at a threat to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as the US Southeast Coast and the Bahamas. At this point, Invest 92-L is the bigger threat of the two, as it is the front-runner. All interests in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should pay careful attention to the progress of 92-L. In addition, folks in the Bahamas and the US Southeast Coast should also pay close attention to the progress of Invest 92-L. As of this writing, I think 92-L will affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and Thursday. The threat to the southeastern Bahamas from 92-L may come this weekend and a threat to the US Southeast Coast sometime late this weekend into early next week. "


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