Invest 90L....Tropi...
 
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Invest 90L....Tropical Depression

 
AllMashUp
(@AllMashUp)
Advanced Member

Just a heads up that Invest 90L should be declared a Tropical Depression sometime later today as the morning satellite images have shown better organization.... I know it's very early but the major models are all predicting a consistent course headed in our general direction or just south of St. Croix. If it stays on the western track at it's current speed is should be in our neighborhood by next Saturday. Click the link below to see the latests GFDL model run predicting a Cat 1 by the time it hits the lesser Antilles. (Click the FWD button to watch the java animation run)

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081306-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

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Topic starter Posted : August 13, 2007 2:15 pm
islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
Trusted Member

More good info about the tropical depression:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?5day#contents

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Too soon to say what will happen but it might be a good idea to stock up earlier rather than later....cuz long lines are NO fun!!!

Be safe everyone!

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Posted : August 13, 2007 4:25 pm
mell
 mell
(@mell)
Advanced Member

Invest 90L has now apparently gathered enough strength to become Tropical Storm Dean.

Thanks for the heads up and the very helpful links AllMashUp and islandjoan.

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Posted : August 14, 2007 3:23 pm
robo841
(@robo841)
Advanced Member

I am following the reports stateside, but am very curious about the local reports and what they are advising the resident. Can anyone fill me in?

Thanks!

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Posted : August 14, 2007 8:32 pm
Alexandra
(@Alexandra)
Trusted Member

update from the Hurricane Hunters today is that their models suggest this storm will come right over STX, arriving late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, possibly as a Cat 1-2 hurricane with winds topping around 105 MPH. The HH aircraft should be arriving on STX on Wednesday to fly through the storm for pressure readings as it develops and heads this way.

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Posted : August 14, 2007 8:51 pm
AllMashUp
(@AllMashUp)
Advanced Member

If you want to watch the latest models as they update here is the Penn State portal that I use, some are run every six hours, the global based ones, every 12. Forecasters weight the average of the models based upon their own observations and how they believe the individual models are behaving, which is to say there is a lot of variation.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Jim

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Topic starter Posted : August 14, 2007 10:16 pm
Ronnie
(@ronnie)
Trusted Member

The latest report has it going south of St Croix!

RL

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Posted : August 14, 2007 10:56 pm
Trade
(@Trade)
Expert

Good! Let's hope it stays on that course & misses everyone.

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Posted : August 14, 2007 10:57 pm
Ronnie
(@ronnie)
Trusted Member

And now even further south. He may hit Martinique as it enters the Caribbean basin.

RL

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Posted : August 15, 2007 10:54 am
Alexandra
(@Alexandra)
Trusted Member

Yes! Dr. Peter Black with NOAA called with an update to have the storm passing to the south. We'll still get a lot of wind and rain, but shouldn't get smacked by the full force of the storm.

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Posted : August 15, 2007 12:18 pm
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