Keep an eye on 93L - soon to be a tropical depression  

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islandjoan
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August 30, 2017 9:56 am  

I have a bad feeling about this one - the models currently bring it really close to us and all conditions are favorable for development which is why it is given a 90% chance! Now is the time to start getting prepared.


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Wolverine888
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August 30, 2017 10:44 am  

What are the best resources you folks recommend utilizing for tracking weather in the Caribbean (i.e.your go-to websites, radio signals, etc.)? I'd like to start getting into the habit of monitoring them now, as will be arriving there as an islander in a few weeks).


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speee1dy
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August 30, 2017 10:58 am  

i use weather underground, a girl at work uses weather bug


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ironheadUSVI
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August 30, 2017 10:59 am  

What are the best resources you folks recommend utilizing for tracking weather in the Caribbean (i.e.your go-to websites, radio signals, etc.)? I'd like to start getting into the habit of monitoring them now, as will be arriving there as an islander in a few weeks).

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/


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speee1dy
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August 30, 2017 11:23 am  

i didnt see it on weatherunderground


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islandjoan
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August 30, 2017 11:50 am  

I use storm carib
Below the big satellite image, there are links to two model tracks: the spaghetti models and another one (in the pink area to the right of 93L Invest)

I also like reading what local correspondents post on the right. Sometimes this is the best place to get information, for example St. Vincent & Grenadines had a lot of damage from the system as it passed over them (this is the system that eventually became Harvey) and they posted a ton of photos.


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quirion
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August 30, 2017 11:55 am  

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ also on facebook https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/


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islandjoan
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August 30, 2017 11:57 am  

Also stormcarib has another page with a bunch of satellite and radar images including the Saharan Dust Layer. You get to those by clicking the big radar image at the top of the homepage. This is a low tech site but it it packed with information.


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speee1dy
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August 30, 2017 11:59 am  

thank you island joan


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singlefin
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August 30, 2017 12:51 pm  

That "colored spaghetti" tracking map on weathercarib looks more like a northerly track to me. Its forming up quickly though.
I've got a 20' container sailing here, due in STX 2nd week of Septenber.
Glad I took the insurance option.
😀


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islandjoan
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August 30, 2017 1:22 pm  

Yeah, the tracks just edged a bit more north than they were previously, which is good.

For some reason stormcarib took the links to 93L down, must be a temporary glitch.

They should bring them back up soon.

That "colored spaghetti" tracking map on weathercarib looks more like a northerly track to me. Its forming up quickly though.
I've got a 20' container sailing here, due in STX 2nd week of Septenber.
Glad I took the insurance option.
😀


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islandjoan
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August 30, 2017 1:38 pm  

Ahhh the links to 93L are down, because it is going to be named a tropical storm at 11am.

Below is from stormcarib.com, Dave used to be the weatherman in STT so I pay attention to what he says:

Wednesday, August 30, 2017 09:15AM EDT - We have TS Irma

Good morning,

First, thoughts and prayers to the people affected by Harvey. There is more to come along the Gulf Coast, especially if the system in the Bay of Campeche verifies and manifests itself.

PTC #10 is speeding away from the east coast and will become a powerful extra-tropical cyclone menacing the North Atlantic shipping lanes, fisherman and eventually the UK. Wind shear from the outflow of Harvey effectively killed it's chances of strengthening.

Skipping TD status, 93L will be christened TS Irma by the NHC by the 11 am advisory with potential land impacts from the Caribbean, GOM and the East Coast too early to tell. However, unless it recurves to a fish storm, someone is going to get a big hit from this one. Positioned approx. 16.4N 29.8W TS Irma is already a well formed system. Wind shear is expected to be low the next few days, SST's are warm enough to support development, and there is a large moisture envelope surrounding the system meaning Saharan Dust/Dry Air, our protector all season, is not going to be the knight in shining armor this time around.

What has the attention and concern of many is the potential track of Irma, according to early model projection, is almost due west with a dip to the SW midway. This is indicative of a strong high pressure system in the central Atlantic getting a bit stronger forcing the SW dip. While it is a rarity to see a storm that has a COC (center of circulation) above 15N speed almost due westward and impact the Northern Leewards, it is not unprecedented. The "Bermuda High", common in the summer months will be the major steering force, potentially impacting the Leewards, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the east coast with the GOM not out of the picture at this early point.

Regardless people, this one, again unless it curves out to sea, looks to become another bad "I" storm like Ike, Ivan, Isabel and Ivan. it's too early to tell for sure as 7 day track guidance can have a 500 mile margin of error. The warning shot has been fired across the bow. Hopefully that's all that will be fired. be safe and prepared.

Dave


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islandjoan
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August 30, 2017 2:10 pm  

TS Irma - I do NOT like the 5 day cone!!!!

Hurricane heading for the middle of the Caribbean chain, unless it moves north quickly.


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Wolverine888
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August 30, 2017 2:27 pm  

Thanks to everyone for your recommendations, truly appreciated!


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speee1dy
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August 30, 2017 4:49 pm  

what i saw a minute ago, headed right our way. hope the path changes


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TN_Travelers
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August 30, 2017 5:13 pm  

"Spaghetti Models" all show it curving North before it reaches us - lets hope they are right! :S


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bathiel
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August 30, 2017 5:17 pm  

This is the site I use: http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

It allows you to display 20 or so different models, as well as a consensus track that incorporates all of them. Right now, all the models, as well as the consensus, show it recurving into the Atlantic before it reaches the islands.

Bernie


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Exit Zero
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August 30, 2017 5:26 pm  

I find www.weathercarib.com the most useful and easy to understand and navigate


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Exit Zero
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August 30, 2017 5:44 pm  

I have not seen any computer tracks putting it close to the USVI.
At 29W it is too far away to get accuracy.
Bears watching, not worrying though as yet.


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islandjoan
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August 30, 2017 6:19 pm  

I just found this website, great EURO models in the middle - check out 8 and 9 days which show it pretty close just passing Northeast of us, hitting Antigua and Anguilla and a few other islands a little east of the VI.
Track the Tropics

But yes it is too far out for any certainty at this point.


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Alana33
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August 30, 2017 6:53 pm  

Time will tell!
It has me nervous, too!
I actually sent my tenants a detailed hurricane prep list, last night!


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AandA2VI
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August 30, 2017 8:57 pm  

I have a bad feeling about this one - the models currently bring it really close to us and all conditions are favorable for development which is why it is given a 90% chance! Now is the time to start getting prepared.

Me too. Bad feeling.....

*** The views and opinions expressed in my posts are soley those of A&A2VI and other like minded islanders. These views and opinions do not necessarily represent those of the majority or any/all contributors to this site. Have a GREAT DAY!


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Pdmargie
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August 30, 2017 10:38 pm  

Plan for the worst. Hope for the best. Time to prepare is now. It may be a really bad thing.


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islandjoan
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August 30, 2017 11:24 pm  

PD and AandA I am in agreement with you both! Spaghetti models are converging more southward.


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singlefin
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August 31, 2017 1:38 am  

Alana,
Can you post your "detailed hurricane prep list"?


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