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Tropical Storm Danny Forms in Atlantic

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Alana33
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Tropical Storm Danny Forms in Atlantic
BY LYNDA LOHR — AUGUST 18, 2015

While weather eyes had been watching a growing tropical wave far out in the Atlantic for several days, Tropical Storm Danny finally got a name at the 5 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center.

However, meteorologist David Sanchez at the National Weather Service in San Juan said Tuesday that it currently looks like it will revert to a wave when it reaches the area starting early next week.

“This could change daily,” he cautioned.

Sanchez said the models suggest it will be a wave because there is dry air and Sahara dust near the Leeward Islands that could slow its development. He said the computer models don’t agree on intensity and track, and probably won’t until Friday or Saturday.

“It’s just still so far out. But regardless of development, people should be alert,” he said, pointing out that it is hurricane season.

As of the 5 p.m. update, Danny had sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend out 45 miles from the center. The barometric pressure stands at 1008 millibars. Meteorologists predict that it will become a hurricane by Thursday.

Danny was on a westward track at 12 mph but was expected to turn Wednesday to the west-northwest. It is centered at 10.9 degrees north latitude and 37.5 degrees west longitude, putting it 1,595 miles east of the Windward Islands.

According to Sanchez, a tropical wave ahead of Danny will bring an increase in cloudiness and showers to the area on Friday.

“But I don’t think it’s going to be something significant for the Virgin Islands,” he said.

The official hurricane season runs until Nov. 30.

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Topic starter Posted : August 19, 2015 9:57 am
Spartygrad95
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We will have to wait and see. None of NOAA's models show it decreasing to a wave by the time it reaches us. Most have low cat 1 or TS.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 10:13 am
OldTart
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Every year these storms roll off the coast of Africa in quick succession and the inevitable hoopla accompanies every one (just go back on this forum alone). If you live here and you're not prepared for hurricane season then get prepared, be prepared - as you should be year-round.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 10:26 am
Alana33
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Tis the season!
It's always a "wait and see" game.
But it's good to plan ahead and have your hurricane prep done, just in case.

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Topic starter Posted : August 19, 2015 10:27 am
islandjoan
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There's a "hoopla" because it is exciting to watch storms develop, and see if they live up to the forecasts. There's a "hoopla" especially this year because we desperately need rain esp. on STX. I watched most of the rain hit STT on Sunday and it only skirted STX with hardly anything. There's a "hoopla" because every time a storm develops, this could be the one.
"Hooplas" are fun!!!!!!!!

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Posted : August 19, 2015 11:47 am
Exit Zero
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Trusted Member Registered

Hooplas may be fun --- but sitting through a night like Hugo or Marilyn brought and living through the months of aftermath rebuilding is certainly not fun -- so for many residents the threat of that memory becomes very stressful when there is a storm in the Atlantic that may come close to us - it doesn't mean we aren't prepared for another hurricane it means that the psychological effects of stress and fear start all over again each season and are more evident with a forecast like this one for Danny - so hooplas may be fun for some here but to many those residual memories still have a noticeable effect.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 1:18 pm
islandjoan
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sorry Exit Zero,

I used the term a bit too loosely and didn't mean it to sound the way it did.

I meant to counteract OT's pooh-poohing of the "hoopla"

I have only been thru Jean and Omar in my 15 years here so I haven't experienced the worst. Omar was pretty intense, though, so I don't want to experience a Cat4 or 5 by any means!

I do know many people who survived Hugo - some who were traumatized horribly, and some who were young and brave at the time and still remain unaffected emotionally from the experience.

The fun for me is in watching these storms develop and reading the chatter on the weather geek sites. I'm a weather junkie so I can't help enjoy that part of it.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 1:40 pm
Alana33
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I'm one of those that begins to experience anxiety when these storms head our way after spending Hugo on a sport fishing boat (which, luckily survived) tied up in the mangroves of Culebra and then huddled in a closet in my home during Marilyn with boyfriend and 3 dogs and then experiencing the months of the aftermath of the devastation caused by those hurricanes.

Then there's deciding whether to put everything away on upper and lower decks and put up shutters or not if we are looking at a storm impacting us which is a lot of work in itself and only adds to my stress levels.

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Topic starter Posted : August 19, 2015 1:43 pm
speee1dy
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im kind of with islandjoan on this one. the excitement builds. its almost like the impending snow day excitement from the north when you are expecting more than a foot of snow

i was here during omar and i thought it wasnt much. we had power back the next day. others not so lucky were months without.

but when you live in hurricane alley you know how to be prepared for an emergency. and always hope/pray for the best

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Posted : August 19, 2015 2:35 pm
Exit Zero
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Trusted Member Registered

I have yet to see any snow storms rip the roof and walls apart on thousands of homes and businesses - take down hundreds of power poles - and have a storm surge that exceeds 12 foot - and I have never seen the VI characterized as "hurricane alley" anywhere either.
I can only wish you good luck as you enjoy the 'excitement building' if you are ever unfortunate enough to be in a storm like Hugo or Marilyn.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 4:34 pm
OldTart
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Well said, EZ. (tu) Unfortunately it's something you apparently only "get" when you've been "got".

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Posted : August 19, 2015 4:44 pm
islandjoan
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My "hoopla" and excitement would certainly turn to dread and fear if I were to see a Cat 2 or 3 building to a 4 or 5 on a path to the VI.

Yet there is still an element of excitement to the whole thing.

Which does not mean that I want a storm like Hugo or Marilyn to hit us all.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 4:59 pm
sttanon
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Advanced Member

Its better safe than sorry but by looking at NOAA wind speed predictions it looks like we are just going to be getting wind and rain

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Posted : August 19, 2015 5:00 pm
janeinstx
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Cool site - https://www.windyty.com/?26.746,-56.162,4

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Posted : August 19, 2015 6:11 pm
speee1dy
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at least, islandjoan i know what you mean. and like islandjoan take precautions and be worried

exit zero-ice storms and snow storms do take down tons of poles every year

hurricane ally for lack of a better term

and like islandjoan take precautions and be worried/scared if a real storm hits

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Posted : August 19, 2015 6:39 pm
Alana33
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Trust me, speed1dy. Omar was NOTHING but a minor inconvenience.
I pray that you, islandjoan and others will NEVER experience such hurricanes. I lost friends in both storms. In Culebra, any boat, yacht, etc., no matter the size, that was not tied up in the mangroves was gone. Out of all the boats anchored in the harbor, 2 were still afloat in the water after Hugo.Only 1 still had a mast. The rest were sunk, pancaked atop each other under the bridge, piled onshore, often atop each other or in the case of a 150 ft. motor vessel, left high and dry on land across the road from where it anchored. I won't describe the night or the fear on the vhf of panicked people attempting to abandon ship at the height of the storm into the water. There were many deaths that night. I have to say the PR National Guard was wonderful and without them, many more might have been lost.

During Marilyn, I lost 2 friends who lived in the lagoon in Benner Bay.
One whose houseboat was destroyed and along with his dog was never found, another who lived aboard a sailboat was found in a tree in the mangrove.

Those 2 hurricanes changed people's lives forever.
I pray I never see the likes of them again in my lifetime.
So yeah, I get stressed and have high anxiety when we have storms begin to roll our way.

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Topic starter Posted : August 19, 2015 8:02 pm
speee1dy
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i pray that too alana-we are not asking for anything major,i just want rain and a lot of it . i know omar was nothing. i have said that many times. and i always hope that there is never a major storm. dont read too much into the excitement thing. dont put words or thoughts into what was said. i was in the keys in 2004 when , before i moved here, we had 3-4 heading right to us. we got lucky each and every time. right after we left-they got hit-cant remember the name, almost lost a friend due to his stupidity. and if you have ever read anything i have written about hurricanes, you would know how cautious i am. and how i always tell people not to have a hurricane party and to not take any threat lightly.

just because islandjoan said there is an excitement in the air and i agreed does not mean either of us want a big storm to hit .

it is the same type of excitement with great thunderstorms or great snowstorms-each of which causes damage and loss of life. it is not the destruction that causes that excitement.

i cant explain it any better and i will not try. but again, if you read more into what was said-thats on you

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Posted : August 19, 2015 9:54 pm
Alana33
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I'm a bit sensitive on the subject, I'll admit.
Hopefully we'll get a nice bit of rain and no wind to speak of.
The rain we've had has already started to green things up and hopefully we'll get more, soon, just no devastation.

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Topic starter Posted : August 19, 2015 10:36 pm
Scubadoo
(@Scubadoo)
Trusted Member

I have yet to see any snow storms rip the roof and walls apart on thousands of homes and businesses - take down hundreds of power poles - and have a storm surge that exceeds 12 foot - and I have never seen the VI characterized as "hurricane alley" anywhere either.
I can only wish you good luck as you enjoy the 'excitement building' if you are ever unfortunate enough to be in a storm like Hugo or Marilyn.

Some of the snow storms of late have been just about that bad, many feet of snow causing roofs to collapse, people shoveling snow off off roofs to prevent collapse, lots of power lines, trees down, roads impassible for days. And the area affected much wider than the typical hurricane path so thousands affected. But still pale in comparison to Hugo or Sandy.

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Posted : August 20, 2015 12:45 am
jonrobin
(@jonrobin)
Advanced Member

Hi everyone. My wife and I are watching the storm track from upstate NY, we are going to be moving to STT or STX in October of 2016. What do you do to prepare for the storms?
I know it sounds silly but I want to start getting things together that might go into a kit to be prepared when we move. We are heading to STT in may for a PMV. I hope all is well and the only thing that happens is the end of the drougt.

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Posted : August 20, 2015 2:25 am
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

See some of the old posts such as this one and others:
https://www.vimovingcenter.com/talk/read.php?4,230988,230992#msg-230992

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Topic starter Posted : August 20, 2015 6:12 am
jonrobin
(@jonrobin)
Advanced Member

Thank You very much Alana. I forgot to use the search option.

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Posted : August 20, 2015 6:59 am
speee1dy
(@speee1dy)
Expert

unless it is something you cant find here on island-wait until you get here to put your kit together.

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Posted : August 20, 2015 10:36 am
vicanuck
(@vicanuck)
Expert

Many of us all always prepared for a hurricane. All I have to worry about at the moment is putting away my deck chairs and getting a few quarts of oil for the generator. I might put up the hurricane shutters on the weekend depending on the outlook. But, right now, it looks like all we can look forward to is a strong tropical storm which is great for our cisterns.

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Posted : August 20, 2015 11:20 am
islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
Trusted Member

Alana, back when Hugo and Marilyn hit, we didn't have TWC and all the tracking websites that we have now. So at least now we are all better informed and can get prepared much earlier. Also I would hope that neither you nor your friends would be riding out a storm in a boat. I cannot even imagine!

Hopefully this one will be weak when it reaches. From the National Hurricane Center:
The multi-model consensus as well as the consensus of
the GFS and the ECMWF depict the expansion of the ridge, and bring
Danny to the eastern Caribbean, while the UK and the GFDL models
insist on taking the cyclone north of the islands. In summary, it
appears that a tropical cyclone or a perhaps a wave will be moving
over the Leeward Islands between 4 and 5 days.

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Posted : August 20, 2015 12:08 pm
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