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Hurricane characteristics in the VI  

 

singlefin
(@singlefin)
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September 24, 2019 8:49 am  

A good soggy morning to all,

Looks like I over prepared for Karen, wind predictions have dropped off... thankfully. Last week we pulled all the wooden forms off the cast walls of my future first floor. My property looks like a lumber yard right now. I spent all day yesterday stacking plywood into nice neat piles and then piling cider blocks on top of everything. 

After watching weather patterns for several years now, and living here full time for over two, I’ve got a few theories. It’s seems to me, September is the big worry here. It’s those brilliant, technicolor, swirly bastards out of West Africa that really need to be watched. By October, weather patterns change and hurricanes are born more to the west and south of us, in the Caribbean/Gulf. From there they roll northward and slam the southern US, but generally stay away from us, or are still at an insignificant stage when they pass by us. For those with far more years here, does this sound about right?

It seems every local has a different perspective about this, just trying to get a gerneral consensus. 

Stay dry 😉


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Gator's Mom
(@gators_mom)
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September 24, 2019 10:05 am  

August, SEPTEMBER, October, november

Historical data on all recorded hurricanes that have impacted the Virgin Islands can be found at the link below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Hurricanes_in_the_United_States_Virgin_Islands


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Exit Zero
(@exit-zero)
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September 24, 2019 10:18 am  

living here since 1975 and seen a few storms -- every year the information on the internet increases our understanding of the storm season. hurricanes are ultimately  the ocean venting heat - September has the warmest Atlantic water temperatures so is the most active month.

now we can watch the satellite depictions all the way to Africa and see how these storms develop and how the upper level wind  shear affects the path - we have radar coverage up to the minute for local conditions - there are multiple websites that predict the path and intensity that continue to refine their ability to interpret increasing available data - anyone can find a huge amount of data on the web and continue to learn what sites are useful to them - no one should be surprised or totally uninformed  - this is the biggest change I have seen in my life here.

I have been a professional sailor most of my life and Always have watched the weather and the information available is constantly increasing.

Preparation for storms and not underestimating the effects is anyone's best plan and overpreparing is rarely wasted energy - correcting the lessons learned each time is only common sense.

people were totally surprised by the intensity of Hugo in 1989 - our information back then was much less than it is today - for Marilyn in 1995 just the experiences learned from Hugo had us better prepared but still information was limited - every year since then the knowledge has increased and by today it is up to the minute -- Now underestimating and under prep is the flaw and surprise should not be a factor.


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Rowdy802
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September 24, 2019 11:20 am  

All quiet here @Sugar Beach. Of course, I want no commotion because we end up losing power quickly. It is just a bit windy. I am glad it is weaker and disorganized as I see it using Weather Underground.

My experience in the Caribbean is that September, is the top month, with October throwing you some curves every now and then.

I'll be leaving next week, so I get to put this behind me. I am actually not tired of STX and its weather, but tired of LBE. Anyhoo... I had some extra supplies from Dorian.

Interestingly, the tremor did wake me up last night. It is the second I've felt. Then again, as long as it is shaking it is good.


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singlefin
(@singlefin)
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September 24, 2019 6:24 pm  

Tremor???

Maybe I’ve got a great mattress, or I’m a very sound sleeper, but I’ve never felt any seismic activity here. 


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Exit Zero
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September 24, 2019 7:37 pm  

there certainly have been many very noticeable earthquakes here - loud, long and serious vibrations - we are located on the caribbean fault plate, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean is just North of us.


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vicanuck
(@vicanuck)
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September 25, 2019 8:30 am  

Apparently, it takes more than an earthquake to wake me up!


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Rowdy802
(@Rowdy802)
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September 25, 2019 12:10 pm  

@singlefin,@vicanuck,@exit-zero

I take Aleeve PM every night, and still that thing woke me up. When I realized what was happening I just decided to just wait it out. Granted, because I live on a third floor, I will get more of the shake 'n bake dance. It also ocurred very late, it was around 11:23. Later I found out it was centered on the north-west of Puerto Rico, and it was fairly strong, 6.0. They've been having quite a few aftershocks.

There was another one about a month ago that was mostly felt in St. Thomas. I was sitting on my desk and it felt like someone was messing with the chair. It was much shorter and, as long as we don't get the Tsunami warnings, it's all good with me.

I'm glad Karen turned out to be nothing major. I actually got to enjoy a couple of cool nights... and I am then shippin' out on Monday.


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islandjoan
(@islandjoan)
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September 25, 2019 1:54 pm  

singlefin: We can have hurricanes in October (Omar 2008) and November (Lenny 1999). Both originated WEST of the islands, and while neither were as bad as Maria, they did have significant impact on STX. Here is a great website where you can research historical tracks and intensities of hurricanes. 

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/?redirect=301ocm#/app=3935&81d2-selectedIndex=1


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speee1dy
(@speee1dy)
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September 27, 2019 9:39 am  

correct, september is peak hurricane time, august and october after.  hurricane season is june 1 through november 30. but hurricanes have been known to happen outside of that time frame. they say the more desert dust we get, the less our chances of a hurricane are??

always be prepared.


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