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Weather System Forecasted to Bring Heavy Rains to the VI Beginning Monday Afternoon; Flash Flood in Effect for STT, STJ

 
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Meteorological - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

...This is an ACTUAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ALERT...

Issued By: VITEMA
Affected Jurisdictions: St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas, Water Island Counties

Headline:
Weather System Forecasted to Bring Heavy Rains to the VI Beginning Monday Afternoon; Flash Flood in Effect for STT, STJ

A small of area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Virgin Islands is becoming better organized. Heavy rainfall associated with this system is forecasted to spread across the Virgin Islands Monday afternoon and become heavier and more widespread on Monday night, especially in St. Thomas and St. John. Two to four inches of rain are likely which may fall in a short period of time and result in flash flooding of guts.

At 4 a.m. today, the National Weather Service issued a Flash Flood Watch for St. Thomas and St. John, which will remain in effect through 11 a.m. Tuesday. Weather conditions will begin to improve by Tuesday afternoon. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system later today to determine if a tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmental and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for additional development while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 miles per hour.

VITEMA is advising the public to monitor this system and to be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a flash flood warning is issued. Avoid flood-prone areas and be careful when approaching roadway dips. The heavy rain could also cause mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Monitor VI Alert or stay tuned to a NOAA weather radio, local radio or cable television stations for later statements and possible warnings.

Y'all check the weather channel for updates.

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Topic starter Posted : October 12, 2014 5:41 pm
ms411
(@ms411)
Expert

Thanks for posting this. I rarely pay attention to the weather, and this will help me plan my day for tomorrow.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 6:06 pm
malibutexan07
(@malibutexan07)
Advanced Member

FYI, it is now Tropical Storm Gonzalo, and may be hurricane force by the time it hits. It is expected to be a hurricane by the time it hits Puerto Rico. Stay tuned...

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Posted : October 12, 2014 7:18 pm
AandA2VI
(@AandA2VI)
Trusted Member

It's expected now to be cat 1 and gaining unfortunately. I like forcaster jones on Facebook: USVI tropical hurricane and weather station. They update very often and show the progress.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 7:23 pm
Novanut
(@novanut)
Trusted Member

For those who want a peek:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2014/Tropical-Storm-Gonzalo

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Posted : October 12, 2014 7:33 pm
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

There's a tropical storm watch for Puerto Rico.
Nothing yet for vi posted. Currently winds are 40 mph but weather channel had nothing to say re: speed nor the vi.
If anyone has updated info, please post.
Not on Facebook.
Hoping for a rain event and not a wind event!

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Topic starter Posted : October 12, 2014 7:38 pm
malibutexan07
(@malibutexan07)
Advanced Member

I use this for monitoring storms: National Hurricane Center.

This is the source organization (NOAA) used by many forecasters. They publish updates as soon as they have them.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 7:43 pm
ms411
(@ms411)
Expert

Thanks, everyone, for keeping us updated! I quit getting VITEMA alerts because they were too frequent and many alerts weren't threatening.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 7:45 pm
malibutexan07
(@malibutexan07)
Advanced Member

There's a tropical storm watch for Puerto Rico.
Nothing yet for vi posted. Currently winds are 40 mph but weather channel had nothing to say re: speed nor the vi.
If anyone has updated info, please post.
Not on Facebook.
Hoping for a rain event and not a wind event!

There is a tropical storm watch for the VI, per NOAA's 1:30pm public advisory on Gonzalo.

According to NOAA, a tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions within 48 hours, while a tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions within 24-36 hours. I expect we will have a TS warning issued in the next 12-24 hours.

NOAA's advisory says 40mph winds right now, but there will be strengthening over the next 48 hours, and higher gusts are likely. The system is moving 10mph, and tropical storm winds extend 45 miles from the center.

Hope this helps!

Oh, and a second advisory on Gonzalo will issue in a little over an hour.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 7:51 pm
AandA2VI
(@AandA2VI)
Trusted Member

Intellicast is a great and my favorite app for monitoring storms and such. Free.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 8:07 pm
ms411
(@ms411)
Expert

I only download apps that offer features I can't get from a website, and most apps and websites do an extremely poor job of explaining what the app does that the site doesn't do.

I notice intellicast seems to have a relationship with Weather Underground. I used to check WU for updates when I needed to know, because I thought they were most accurate.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 8:17 pm
OldTart
(@the-oldtart)
Expert

A nice rainy Monday night is most welcomed.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 8:21 pm
malibutexan07
(@malibutexan07)
Advanced Member

Someone inform WAPA.... _

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Posted : October 12, 2014 8:24 pm
AandA2VI
(@AandA2VI)
Trusted Member

Just curious should I be shutting my hurricane shutters for this? Were up high and it's not a quick job for my bedroom windows.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 8:25 pm
OldTart
(@the-oldtart)
Expert

Just curious should I be shutting my hurricane shutters for this? Were up high and it's not a quick job for my bedroom windows.

No. It's a simple passing tropical storm.

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Posted : October 12, 2014 8:33 pm
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Let's hope so ot.
I get pstd and begin to worry my butt off to have to decide whether to board up or not.

Put a call out to the guy who generally takes care of the rental home to let him know I may need him after I see what is what in morning.
Plus I have my own home to deal with, plants, outdoor furniture to remove from decks, etc.

Lots of work involved and my shoulder is not 100 percent these days.
The only thing that we can be certain is that wapa will go offline.

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Topic starter Posted : October 12, 2014 8:50 pm
malibutexan07
(@malibutexan07)
Advanced Member

Latest update: there's now a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for the VI. It's path puts it over St Croix. Winds are up to 45mph

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Posted : October 12, 2014 8:56 pm
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Alert / Warning Meteorological - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

...This is an ACTUAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ALERT...

Issued By: VITEMA Affected Jurisdictions: St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas, Water Island Counties

Headline: US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Under Hurricane Watch as Ganzalo Strengthens

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and its surrounding islands as Gonzalo continues to strengthen just a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.According to the National Hurricane Center, at 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at was located near Latitude 16.4 degrees north, Longitude 59.5 degrees west. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 miles per hour and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Monday night.

On the forecast track, Gonzalo is expected to move through the central Leeward Islands by early Monday morning and approach the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 miles per hour with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by early Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

Gonzalo is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the US Virgin Islands with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches possible. Swells generated by Gonzalo will affect the Leeward Islands tonight and reach the US Virgin Islands by Monday afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

VITEMA Acting Director Austin Callwood is urging the public to begin preparations for storm impact and to continue monitoring the system. VITEMA is also advising the public to closely monitor VI Alert or stay tuned to a NOAA weather radio, local radio or cable television stations for later statements and possible warnings.

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Topic starter Posted : October 12, 2014 9:54 pm
speee1dy
(@speee1dy)
Expert

good to know. thank you and i am glad our shutters are sliders and not the type that screw in

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Posted : October 12, 2014 10:46 pm
Alana33
(@alana33)
Expert

Hopefully, it will increase in strength after it's passed us and go out to sea.

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Topic starter Posted : October 12, 2014 10:51 pm
Spartygrad95
(@Spartygrad95)
Trusted Member

Looking more and more like a very strong TS or a CAT 1 hurricane early Tuesday which is the time it is supposed to pass between STX and STT

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Posted : October 12, 2014 11:50 pm
malibutexan07
(@malibutexan07)
Advanced Member

good to know. thank you and i am glad our shutters are sliders and not the type that screw in

I put in some of the screw-in kind in today (for the first time since moving here)...wow, what work! Sliders are worth the cost. =P

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Posted : October 13, 2014 2:44 am
malibutexan07
(@malibutexan07)
Advanced Member

Ok, the latest update (just now) from the NHC puts the storm passing over STT/STJ. The latest trajectory has the center of the storm missing STX. The winds and rain will still reach STX, so I expect outages. =

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Posted : October 13, 2014 2:48 am
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